China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chinese services sector ploughs ahead
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- April’s RMB343B PSL net repayment is probably related to the PBoC’s desire to cushion bond yields.
- The April Caixin services activity PMI barely slowed, a rosier picture than the drop in the official index.
- The Caixin index is tracking the service-sector output data better than the official index.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q1 GDP grew solidly, thanks to vigorous manufacturing output and services growth.
- Services growth is broadening to business services, but the consumption recovery is relatively lacklustre.
- China will follow its own reform path at the Third Plenum, rather than adopting Western prescriptions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korean export recovery continues, thanks to resilient US and Chinese demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korean manufacturers are highly bullish, despite mounting cost pressures
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s April manufacturing PMI points to improving output and demand trends year-to-date.
- But burgeoning cost pressures are making firms cautious on hiring and inventory purchasing.
- The BoK is likely to worry about these cost pressures disrupting the slowing trend in consumer inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s WDA exports have grown solidly in recent months, pointing to a sustained recovery in demand.
- Semiconductors accounted for 70% of growth in April; both US and Chinese demand was resilient.
- Weak currency played a role in supporting exports; the level of export values is still below that in 2022.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Chinese industrial profits continue to improve in Q1 despite March's slowdown
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Manufacturing output in rude health, though the PMIs provide contrasting readings for new orders
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's PMIs indicate manufacturing output surge, despite mixed demand readings; services activity suffers post-holiday dip
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Both China’s April PMIs agree that manufacturing output is going from strength to strength...
- ...But the official gauge shows demand fading slightly, while the Caixin indicates further robustness.
- It was announced at yesterday’s Politburo meeting the reform-oriented Third Plenum will be held in July.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA’S RECOVERY MAKING HEADWAY
- - JPY PRESSURE GIVING THE BOJ A HEADACHE
- - STRONG EXPORTS LIFT KOREAN GROWTH
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Tokyo inflation slows due to implementation of free high school education and cooling food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ resists JPY market pressure in keeping the policy rate target range steady
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ holds the policy rate steady; Tokyo consumer inflation cools, thanks to education subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ held firm on its policy rate on Friday, defying market pressure on the JPY.
- Governor Ueda declined to adopt a more hawkish tone on the rate path, keeping the focus on inflation.
- April national inflation won’t slow as much as Tokyo inflation, hit by the start of free local schooling.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI improves on higher output and weak JPY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI improves on higher output and weak JPY; services activity expands amid higher cost pressure
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s structural problems, notably in the property sector, are limiting the efficacy of interest rate cuts.
- But varied public views on the management of bond yields hint at a broader internal policy debate.
- Labour-market issues are compounded by credit constraints for private firms, especially SMEs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ is likely to keep the policy rate unchanged, as Japan hasn’t attained sustainable inflation yet.
- Broad wage growth is likely to lag strong pay rises at large employers, while consumption looks soft.
- But building pressure on JPY will probably force the Bank to strike a more hawkish tone on future rates.
Duncan WrigleyChina+