CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 August 2024

Stagnant profit growth amid China's sluggish demand and ample capacity

China’s MLF rate was unchanged as expected

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: MLF, China, August

In one line: China’s MLF rate was unchanged as expected

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, July

In one line: Japan's inflation remains steady in July as energy prices rebound and core-core inflation eases

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 23 August 2024

Japan's inflation remains steady in July as energy prices rebound and core-core inflation eases

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22 August 2024

BoK holds rate steady on financial stability worries; Japan's flash PMIs indicate better growth momentum in August, especially in services

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, August

In one line: Japan’s manufacturing activity shrinks at a slower pace in August, thanks to improvement in output and employment

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, August

In one line: The Bank of Korea is in no rush to cut rates, likely to start its easing cycle in Q4

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 August 2024

Korea’s 20-day export growth fueled by lumpy ship exports and renewed EU demand.

Japan’s July export growth boosted by semiconductors gains and mixed regional demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Japan, July

In one line: Japan’s July export growth boosted by semiconductors gains and mixed regional demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: 20 Day Exports, Korea, August

In one line: Korea’s 20-day export growth fueled by lumpy ship exports and renewed EU demand.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

3 September 2024 China+ Monitor China's manufacturing sector still soft, as fiscal stimulus is diluted

•  China’s August manufacturing PMIs remained at a low ebb, with a modest uptick in the Caixin gauge.
• Weakening export orders suggest China cannot count on external demand to hit its growth target.
• Falling special-bond funds for new project investment is dragging on infrastructure investment.
   

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

2 September 2024 China+ Monitor China's aging housing stock another reason for people to save

• China’s controversial ‘housing pension’ scheme rollout highlights the cost of an aging housing stock.
• Homeowners worry they will have to foot more of the bill for maintaining housing; another reason to save.
• Q2 credit data suggest the game plan to hit “about 5%” GDP growth this year is running into obstacles.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

29 August 2024 China+ Monitor Potential rate cut delay looms as BoK assesses financial stability risk

• An October cut is our base case, with a month’s delay if the BoK needs more time to monitor financial risks.
• Korea’s 20-day export data indicate solid external demand for full-month August, due to the chip cycle.
• Renewed EU demand more than offset slowing ASEAN exports; China is the biggest downside risk.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

August 2024 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA’S WEAK DOMESTIC DEMAND JUSTIFIES MORE STIMULUS
• - JAPAN’S Q2 GDP EVIDENCES A WAGE-PRICE SPIRAL
• - BOK TO CUT IN OCT AS BASE CASE; NOV CUT A POSSIBILITY

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

27 August 2024 China+ Monitor China's consumption struggles amid low confidence and policy challenges

• China's July retail sales bounce is misleading; it is simply a recovery from June's unexpected fall.
• Consumption has been beset by socioeconomic factors: jobs, income, policies, social norms.
• Demand-side policies will remain targeted; Western- style handouts to consumers are unlikely.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

23 August 2024 China+ Monitor BoK keeps policy rate unchanged in August on financial stability worries

• The Bank of Korea held rates steady in August due to worries about household debt and financial stability.
• Cutting rates early could fuel asset prices in Seoul; a potential Fed cut complicates BoK’s easing decision.
• We still expect the MPB to cut rates at the October meeting, but it could be delayed until November.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

21 August 2024 China+ Monitor China's banks maintain LPR as net interest margins hit record low

• China’s commercial banks left loan prime rates unchanged in August as their NIM hit a record low.
• The PBoC is in no rush to lower policy rates; fiscal policy is bearing the burden of driving the recovery.
• Q2 inward direct investment was negative again; 2024 is set for the largest net outflows since the 2000s.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: LPR, China, August

In one line: China’s loan prime rates unchanged in August as banking NIM at record low

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 August 2024

China’s LPRs unchanged in August as banking NIM at record low

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 August 2024

Slowing industrial production highlights China’s slumping property sector and rising trade frictions 

China’s retail sales rebound in July, but weak consumer confidence and property woes weigh on growth

Fixed investment falters amid infrastructure slowdown and weak private investment  

China’s property sales activity and price growth remain weak

PBoC shifts to new monetary framework: MLF operations to be carried out on 25th of every month

Japan’s GDP surprises on the upside, with gains in both consumption and investment amid emerging risks

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+