China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: China’s Q3 current account surplus widens; inward FDI remains negative for second consecutive quarter
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: One month’s data can be misleading; China's quarterly export growth has, in fact, decelerated.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves drop in October amid dollar strength and outflow pressures.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s wage growth holds steady, supporting case for BoJ hike in early 2025; Our revised forecasts post-Trump victory show weaker growth
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s real household spending fell further in October as people tighten their purse strings.
- Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in November, held back by willingness to buy durable goods.
- The BoJ will probably hike rates this month, as long as market risks from Korean politics are contained.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin services PMI slows a notch
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s headline export growth eased in November, but work-day-adjusted data showed a bounce-back.
- The rebound was driven by stronger ASEAN shipments; overall growth momentum is slowing.
- We expect the BoK to ease by 75bp in 2025 to counteract the increasingly uncertain export outlook.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Both of China’s manufacturing PMIs in November point to a near-term uptick in activity.
- But their price indices are a mixed bag, and China probably hasn’t escaped deflation just yet.
- The construction PMI disappointed, due to the continued drag from housing construction.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PMI buoyed by rising near-term demand; but under the shadow of protectionism risks in 2025
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China Caixin and Korean manufacturing PMIs buoyed by rising near-term demand; but under the shadow of protectionism risks in 2025
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo headline inflation surges, but mainly thanks to higher energy and fresh food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo headline inflation surges, but mainly thanks to higher energy and fresh food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo headline inflation leapt in November, mainly on the back of higher energy and fresh food inflation.
- Core inflation—excluding energy and fresh food—and services inflation only inched up.
- The BoJ is likely feeling boxed in by rising market bets on a December rate hike, implying 60% probability.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoK makes surprise rate cut to bolster Korean growth, amid looming trade protectionism risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoK makes surprise rate cut to bolster Korean growth, amid looming trade protectionism risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK surprised the market yesterday by cutting the base rate by 25bp to 3.00%.
- Growth risks figured prominently, notably related to US protectionism and China’s competitiveness.
- The BoK should keep easing, as long as USDKRW weakens roughly in line with other major currencies.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's industrial profits extend their decline, hit by producer price deflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s industrial profits extended their decline in October, though equipment-maker figures improved.
- Sinking property-construction demand and an epic coal-price correction are the key drags.
- Look out for supply-side reforms to rectify excess capacity at the Central Economic Work Conference.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s November flash PMIs show manufacturing activity is still struggling.
- The service sector flash index paints a rosier picture of activity and sentiment.
- The output price PMIs point to stubbornly elevated inflation pressure.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's MLF rate left on hold; more liquidity support needed to fund debt-swap bond issuance
Duncan WrigleyChina+
