China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Japan’s headline consumer inflation slows only thanks to energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Flash manufacturing PMI was hit by falling output, despite an improvement in export orders
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's headline inflation falls only thanks to energy subsidies
Flash manufacturing PMI weakens
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s October headline CPI inflation fell only because energy subsidies pulled down energy prices.
- Core inflation excluding energy has been steady for three straight months.
- Don’t expect a knee-jerk BoJ reaction after the end of energy subsidies lifts November’s headline inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean export growth picks up a notch, as chip shipments roar
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean export growth picks up a notch, as chip shipments roar
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean exports in the first 20 days of November maintained a respectable growth trend over October.
- Shipments to Taiwan and other key Asian economies were strong; they rose to the EU but fell to the US.
- Headline export growth was boosted by a one-off factor, a smaller drag from falling oil exports.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China’s benchmark lending rates are steady this month, as regulators gauge the effect of September’s cuts
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's LPRs on hold as regulators judge impact of earlier easing
Japan's export growth picks up modestly
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- -CHINA’S 2024 GDP TARGET IS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
- - BOJ TO HOLD FAST UNTIL JANUARY, BARRING JPY SHOCK
- - BOK TO FOCUS ON COOLING INFLATION AND GROWTH
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s headline export growth improved in October, thanks to demand from non-traditional markets.
- This was largely due to price effects, however, with real export growth weakening in October.
- China’s government has paved the way for early issuance of 2025 special bond quota to support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Trade-in subsidies lift retail sales of autos and consumer goods
Residential sales stabilise
Manufacturing output making steady progress
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s October activity data show household spending ticking up, on goods and property.
- Ignore the dip in headline industrial output; manufacturing production is still robust.
- The full-year growth target is in reach, thanks to rising service sector activity; but 2025 is another matter.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s consumer inflation is dragged down by volatile food and energy prices, but core prices are improving.
- Producer deflation steepened, masking construction-material price rises, likely due to stimulus demand.
- Mr. Trump’s US election victory will depress Chinese growth and likely keep inflation subdued for longer.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s earlier stimulus efforts should give a modest lift to October’s activity data, due out tomorrow.
- But this is a fragile rise, dependent on further policy support, just as external risks are mounting.
- December’s Central Economic Work Conference should bring more piecemeal support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China credit demand growth hit a record low in October, with TSF growth at its weakest since 2003.
- Loans to the real economy fell further due to slowing corporate and household borrowing.
- The economic support measures so far have given China’s credit demand limited uplift.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's RMB10T debt-swap plan isn't the last word in addressing its malaise
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s National People’s Congress approved only a debt-swap plan on Friday, no direct stimulus.
- But the Finance Minister indicated that more measure s, for property and banks, are coming.
- China’s October foreign reserves plunged, in part probably due to bond-market outflows.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Mr. Trump’s win likely means China’s NPC will today approve only modest stimulus to boost confidence.
- But a bigger multi-year package is likely on the way, with more leeway to mitigate the impact of tariffs.
- The BoJ is likely to favour growth with a slower pace of rate hikes but be alert to the risk of JPY weakness.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s October Caixin services PMI points to stronger activity in the month.
- Services firms’ sentiment is reviving, as policy support lifts consumption and some property sales.
- But the longevity of this burgeoning rebound hinges on further policy support, with news likely on Friday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
