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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

8 July 2024 China+ Monitor PBoC preparing to boost long-term bond yields

  • The PBoC announced last week it will borrow government bonds from primary dealers…
  • ...The Bank is likely to short bonds to drive up 10-year yields to 2.5% in H2, supporting CNY.
  • The Caixin service s PMI dipped in June, as tourism activity cooled during the off-season.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

5 July 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's profitable manufacturers have the weak currency to thank

  • Japan’s Q2 Tankan reveals buoyant manufacturer profitability, despite testing market conditions...
  • ...Largely explained by the weak JPY, spurring a surge in export value, while real exports are falling.
  • Japan’s H2 outlook is clouded by the dip in the Juneservices PMI and the auto safety fiasco.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 July 2024 China's Caixin services activity index slows

China's Caixin services activity index slows during tourism off-season

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 July 2024 China+ Monitor Korean manufacturing riding the AI chip boom

  • Korea’s June headline manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since April 2022.
  • Exports continued to power ahead in June, thanks to semiconductor exports for AI applications.
  • Rising import costs boost our conviction that the BoK will delay its first policy rate cut until Q4. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

2 July 2024 China+ Monitor China's light industry outperforms heavy industry, amid soft demand

  • The Caixin manufacturing PMI continued to outpace the official index in June…
  • …reflecting better performance among light industries and high-tech than heavy industries.
  • The construction index was hit by extreme weather conditions, masking any stimulus impact.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 July 2024 Mixed picture for China's manufacturers

Mixed picture for China's manufacturers

Japanese and Korean firms hit by mounting import costs

Korean exports lifted by AI-chip demand

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, June

Tokyo consumer inflation nudged up by the removal of energy subsidies

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 July 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ relaxed about uptick in Tokyo inflation; more energy subsidies

  • Tokyo consumer inflation rose a touch in June, due to the removal of energy subsidies…
  • …But Japan plans to reinstate the subsidies, meaning little risk of a near-term inflation surge.
  • Japan’s encouraging May export growth figure reflects price rises, while real exports fell slightly.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 June 2024 China+ Monitor China's Third Plenum likely to focus on business-friendly reforms

  • Xinhua yesterday announced the reform-focused Third Plenum will be held on July 15-to-17.
  • We expect pro-business and-innovation reforms but no fundamental shift to consumption-based growth.
  • Industrial profits hit a soft patch in May, hurt by rising operating costs, despite improved revenue growth.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

27 June 2024 China+ Monitor China's property slump continues despite government efforts

  • China’s property market is still in the doldrums; prices and transactions are falling at pace.
  • The secondary market is suffering bigger price falls due to higher inventory levels and consumer choice.
  • The impact of re-lending facilities will not be felt immediately due to implementation problems.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

June 2024 - China+ Chartbook

  • - CHINA’S ACTIVITY TICKING OVER ENOUGH
  • - BOJ SIGNALS BOND BUYING TO SLOW
  • - STRONG EXPORTS ALLOW BOK’S MORE HAWKISH STANCE

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

25 June 2024 China+ Monitor Korean export rebound spearheaded by AI-related chip shipments

  • Korea’s 20-day exports continued their uptrend in June, thanks to base effects and chip demand.
  • Exports to the US are soaring, while shipments to China rose modestly; but the EU market is still weak.
  • Export value growth is outpacing volume growth, thanks to rising semiconductor prices.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, June

Korean exports power ahead thanks to AI-chip shipments

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 June 2024: Korean WDA 20-day exports forge ahead

Korean WDA 20-day exports forge ahead, thanks to AI chip boom

Japan's consumer inflation ticks up, despite softening flash PMI readings

Duncan WrigleyChina+

24 June 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's stagflation conundrum; service sector at risk of stagnation

  • Japan’s consumer inflation rose in May, due to the phasing out of household energy subsidies.
  • Cost-push inflation is set to return in H2, reflecting the lagged impact of the weak JPY.
  • But the June flash PMIs point to flagging domestic economic activity; what a headache for the BoJ!

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+Datanote: LPR, China, June

In one line: China’s loan prime rates left unchanged in June amid record low NIMs for banks

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

21 June 2024 China+ Monitor Governor Pan hints at the PBoC's readiness to stabilise bond yields

  • PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng on Wednesday hinted the Bank is likely to start bond trading.
  • The definition of M1 will probably be broadened, after the dramatic plunge in May.
  • The Bank expects credit growth to remain slow, given China’s changing economic growth model.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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