China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rebound on stockpiling activity, but domestic demand softens
In one line: Japan's services business activity grow faster in June, but slowing input cost increase bode ill for wage growth
In one line: China’s current account balance holds up in Q1, but deterioration likely in Q2.
In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.
In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry
In one line: Japan's core inflation surprised on the upside, but unlikely to sway BoJ into hiking mode
- Japan’s June headline flash manufacturing index was lifted by output, but demand remained subdued.
- Cost pressures are easing only slowly, with global oil prices a key risk.
- The service sector continues to be bolstered by tourism, notably surging Chinese visitor numbers.
- Korea’s 20-day export growth rebounded, likely supported by stockpiling as the US’s deadline nears.
- Shipments to the US, EU and Taiwan were the main drivers, while chip exports were strong in June.
- The trade-talk logjam continues; we expect the grace period to be extended, allowing more negotiating time.
In one line: China's commercial banks hold benchmark lending rates steady in June
In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June
- - CHINA’S FLAGGING GROWTH TO PROMPT POLICY TWEAKS
- - BOJ OPTS FOR PRAGMATIC MIDDLE PATH ON BOND-BUYING
- - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY
- Japan’s headline national consumer inflation inched down in May, with energy inflation cooling.
- The new rice distribution system is star ting to yield results, but rice prices are still double the target range.
- The BoJ is likely to sit tight on interest rates this year, given the impact of higher US tariffs.
Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments
Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments
- Japan’s exports fell in May for the first time since September, hit by US tariff hikes.
- Still, exports held up better than the market expected, as exporters cut prices and shipments to the EU rose.
- The bond market faces risks from July’s upper house election, despite the BoJ’s supportive policy tweak.
- The BoJ left policy rates unchanged in June, while scaling back its tapering of bond-buying next year…
- …Likely due to bond-market volatility, the stalemate in trade negotiations and tensions in the Middle East.
- We expect the Bank to continue pausing its rate-hiking cycle in the near term as Japan’s economy weakens.
China's investment and industrial output data point to slowing growth, despite the bright retail sales reading
- China’s solid retail sales figure for May was boosted by earlier online retail sales and subsidy policies.
- Manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth are slowing; expect the policy banks to step up soon.
- Policymakers are likely to opt for a mid-year top-up and refinement of targeted support; no big stimulus.
- China’s May steady broad credit growth was based mainly on strong government bond issuance, again.
- Private sector credit demand still dull; the M1 uptick isn’t meaningful and will probably reverse in June.
- The financial system is absorbing rapid government bond issuance with no sign of strain; PBoC has tools.
- China faces a long-term demographic headwind, as its workforce declines and population ages...
- ...but also an opportunity to shift 20% of the workforce into jobs with productivity three times higher.
- Growth potential will still be substantial after the structural adjustment; plus AI is a wild card.
