Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)
- In one line: Heating housing market concerns continue to haunt the CBC.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Falling trade balance hides pick-up in Malaysian export momentum
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Ignore Malaysia’s smaller trade surplus in August, as the economy ramps up intermediate imports...
- ...The recovery in electronics exports continues to gather steam, powering manufacturing growth.
- The CBC sounds increasingly desperate in trying to rein in housing prices; an uphill task, in our view.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Electronics to the US for AI-related investment continue to support Taiwanese export growth…
- …This demand is likely to remain firm, but its strong performance hides weakness elsewhere.
- The July fall in Malaysian retail sales growth is more likely stabilisation, rather than real weakness.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: One trick, AI pony continues to support trade.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus barely moved in August , but exports to the US are flying…
- …We still expect GDP growth to slip modestly in Q3, with IP and retail sales clearly losing momentum.
- Philippine CPI returned quickly to the BSP's range in August; the door ’s ajar for a 50bp cut in October.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BNM is likely to stay on hold for the rest of 2024, faced with slowing CPI and a strong GDP outlook.
- Taiwanese CPI is set to benefit from slower imported inflation, but rental growth is still a worry.
- Singaporean retail sales growth is likely to remain weak for most of H2, barring friendly base effects.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Sticky housing inflation keeps headline elevated.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Headline inflation in Singapore stayed at 2.4%, as services disinflation offset transportation inflation...
- ...But it is too early to celebrate, since the drop was due to external-facing travel services disinflation.
- Taiwanese retail sales started Q3 disappointingly, but rising wage growth is a promising signal.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Slow start to Taiwanese retail spending growth in Q3.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Cooling of Singaporean services inflation prone to reversal
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian headline inflation benefited from food disinflation, which offset higher services inflation...
- …But this engine of disinflation is likely to stall in the coming months, resulting in the headline rising.
- We still expect the BNM to hold policy rates in 2024, as average inflation is below its forecast.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Both export and import growth in Malaysia beat consensus by a large margin in July…
- …But the stronger surge in import growth resulted in the trade surplus more than halving.
- Smaller trade surpluses are likely to be typical in H2, but a pick-up in real activity should support GDP.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Surplus more than halves, but little reason for concern.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Growth in Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports surprised to the upside in July.
- It was supported by a pickup in electronics exports, friendly base effects and non-monetary gold.
- Reversal in August is likely but the overall trajector y for exports will probably stay positive in Q3.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Two-tier recovery in exports continues.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
