- Bank Indonesia paused rate cuts for a second straight month, keeping the BI rate at 6.00%.
- Governor Warjiyo cited concerns over the rupiah, in view of less-aggressive Fed cuts under Trump 2.0.
- We still see the BI rate falling to a terminal level of 4.75% by end-2025, with risks to the downside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Broad-based investment comeback drives Thailand’s market-beating Q3 GDP print
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
An overdue bounce in demand from India moves Indonesia’s export recovery forward
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in October was a let-down, but it is stable, seasonality aside…
- …This is thanks to a broad-based export recovery; India is a weak spot, but it rebounded last month.
- India’s trade deficit ballooned in October, but due mainly to oil imports, not a bump in real demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Oil imports are seeing an impressive—but likely temporary—revival.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Food prices are still the main headache at the WPI level in India, too
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A December rate cut is only just barely alive; a weak Q3 GDP print could still sway things.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Our final Q3 GDP growth forecast for India sees it collapsing further to 6.0%, from 6.7% in Q2…
- …Falling short of the RBI’s view for a bounce to 7.0% and keeping the door open to a December rate cut.
- October CPI was very hot, but food inflation—and, by extension, the headline—likely has peaked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Frustratingly slow recovery in Indonesian retail sales continues
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales growth is faltering—again—amid low real wage growth and fading confidence…
- …Sentiment has yet to see any rise despite falling inflation and the promise of a new government.
- Job expectations are still deteriorating the most; soft consumption looks set to continue in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Philippine GDP growth dropped sharply to 5.2% in Q3, from 6.4% in Q2, decisively below expectations.
- Our seasonal adjustment shows that growth lost quarterly momentum; households remain anaemic.
- The capex outlook is no longer deteriorating, but BSP policy looks set to remain tighter; thank Trump.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
GDP growth in the Philippines plunges to a five-quarter low
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Vietnamese exports are once again losing momentum
The softening in ‘official’ retail sales growth in Vietnam is far from over
The impact of Yagi on Vietnamese food inflation continues to be felt
The ghost of the short-lived previous administration pushes Thai inflation up further in October
Philippine sales had a forgetful Q3 at the end of the day; all eyes on tomorrow's GDP release
An abysmal September effectively has written off Q3 for Philippine exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Export growth in Vietnam fell further in October; this will persist, with momentum and orders fading.
- Mr. Trump's proposed tariffs could be a ‘win’ for Vietnam, if it isn’t targeted with specific measures…
- …His own corporate interests locally might mitigate the risks, but the VND will stay in the spotlight.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Inventories spike keeps Indonesian GDP growth from slowing more sharply in Q3
Inflation in the Philippines should stabilise near the lower end of the BSP’s range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Indonesia missed expectations in Q3, slipping to 4.9% from 5.0% in Q2…
- …An historic leap in inventories prevented a sharper drop, but this sets up a painful payback in Q4.
- Trade and related investment were real bright spots, while consumption remains relatively lacklustre.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The PMI for ASEAN was unchanged in October, at 50.5, despite a post-Yagi bounce-back in Vietnam…
- …Export-oriented countries, at large, have lost a lot of steam recently, in a warning sign for world trade.
- Indonesia’s sluggishness is a huge drag, given its sheer size; the rise in lead times is reversing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We see Indonesian GDP growth slipping to 4.8% in Q3 on waning consumption and a modest trade hit .
- Government spending and investment should offer some cushion, partly with help from base effects.
- Philippine GDP growth likely relapsed to 4.6% in Q3, in line with the sluggishness in consumption.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
