- In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 5.75%, hitting pause again after January’s surprise rate cut…
- …We’re sticking to our above-consensus 100bp 2025 easing call, with inflation set to cool further.
- Mr. Prabowo’s ‘austerity’ leaves the ball more in BI’s court too, even if this drive doesn’t fully materialise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Deficit hit on both sides of the balance.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand disappointed, increasing modestly to 3.2% in Q4, from 3.0% in Q3…
- …Helpful import base effects did a lot of the heavy lifting; ‘robust’ export momentum remains fragile.
- Domestic demand was nowhere to be seen; we still expect a small GDP growth dip in 2025, to 2.4%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Thailand’s 2-speed economy ends 2024 on a somber note
A very unwelcome January leap in Indonesia’s trade surplus
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Moderation in upstream food pressures in India is the real deal
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Chinese start-up, DeepSeek, shattered the idea that better chips equate to better AI models...
- …Investors panicked, leading to a 6% plunge in TSMC shares after markets opened on February 3.
- The panic was overblown, yet TSMC does face other serious headwinds.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Setting the stage for an immediate follow-up rate cut in April; consumer goods output go MIA to close off 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP surprised by hitting pause, blaming tariff uncertainty; we still see 100bp in cuts this year.
- Indian inflation dropped closer to the RBI’s 4% target in January; more downside in food is coming.
- We have lowered our 2025 average inflation fore- cast to 3.8%, with core price pressures also cooling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesian sales boosted modestly by front-loading before the VAT rate hike
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Sales growth in Indonesia rebounded in December, as consumers brought forward some spending…
- …Ahead of what was ultimately a narrow VAT rate hike; expect an immediate correction in January.
- Overall, headline growth remains historically tepid, and leading indicators are still uninspiring.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese export growth fell more than expected in January; blame the Lunar New Year noise…
- …Yet, demand from China remains weak, with exports there falling in three of the past four months.
- Headline inflation rose too, but this—again—seems due mainly to residual Lunar New Year effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The RBI’s first cut is finally here; expect at least one more by mid-year
The impressive run-up in Philippine sales at end-2024 owes partly to short-lived tail
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI finally started its easing cycle, cutting the repo rate to 6.25% amid slowing GDP and CPI…
- …This should be followed by an immediate cut in April; the new Governor is more for ward-looking.
- The shift to a debt-to-GDP target from 2026/27 will still necessitate a further consolidation of the deficit.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Everyone seems to have forgotten the Tet noise in Vietnamese trade
A more believable retail sales print from Vietnam, no doubt flattered by Tet
Healthcare costs provide Vietamese inflation with a further—much bigger—jolt
Thai inflation continues to float just a touch above the lower bound of BoT's target range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Exports and public spending helped to keep Indonesia’s ship absurdly 'steady’ in Q4
Philippine inflation should start to move sideways from here
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnamese export growth plunged into the red in January, but this can be explained fully by Tet noise.
- The January jump in inflation to a six-month high was policy-induced; again, no need to panic.
- The BSP isn’t too fussed by the upside surprise in January inflation; official core has clearly bottomed.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian GDP growth stayed at 5% in Q4, but we reckon in reality it was closer to the mid-4% range.
- The unsustainable Q3 boost from stocks reversed, but this was offset by statistical discrepancies.
- Government spending and exports were the real—tangible—bright spots, countering capex softness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The PMIs show that regional manufacturing is still largely waning; watch for potential US front-loading.
- Indonesia’s shockingly low January CPI was policy-induced and will reverse; it masked a jump in food.
- Fiscal policy in India will stay contractionary, but the government riskily is hoping for a pain-free FY26.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
