- In one line: Inflated—yet again—by ‘other’ retail sales; ignore.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The year-over-year slump in Thai consumption growth has bled into Q2, amid poor wage growth.
- The Q4 handout is unlikely to offer real relief, with more households struggling just to pay off debt.
- Philippines’ household savings rose in 2023 for the first time since 2019; the battle is far from over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A more dovish hold, unfazed by the peso’s wobble.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP’s rate hold yesterday was very dovish, and its rhetoric signals an August cut more clearly.
- The Board has taken the opportunity offered by the rice-tariff cut to recalibrate its cautious CPI bias…
- …Its risk-adjusted CPI forecasts are now snugly within the target range; GDP is back on the agenda.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
THE ‘REAL’ ECONOMY WHICH LET DOWN MODI’S BJP
- …NOTE THE NUANCE IN MALAYSIA’S DIESEL-SUBSIDY REFORM
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A not-so-emphatic return to the black, once adjusted for seasonality.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A decent end to Q2 for India's sky-high, if questionable, PMIs
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s sky-high PMIs were mixed in Q2; services lost steam, but manufacturing hit new heights…
- …The year- over-year story is soft, though, with both gauges combined pointing to sub -6% GDP growth.
- Hiring has supposedly gone up a level in recent months, but the hard data tell a very different story.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A non-event; expect more of the same through Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The 2024 volatility in Indonesian exports continued in May, this time resulting in a hefty bounce-back…
- …The overall trend is still range-bound though, and China’s uneven recovery continues to pose a risk.
- We have upgraded our current account forecast, with real import demand deteriorating further.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Deficit hit by lagged oil-price effects, which will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Upstream core price pressures are now clearly reviving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Food CPI in India will soon tank on base effects, but don’t underestimate the improving monthly story…
- …Inflation expectations remain unfazed, though more signs are pointing to a U-turn in core inflation.
- Average inflation should still fall to 4.6% this year, but we have raised our 2025 forecast to 4.5%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Some green shoots on food inflation; IP appears to be breaking out of its recent stagnation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate at 2.50%; dissenting votes for a 25bp cut fell to one, from two.
- Growth is the area that is most likely to disappoint, relative to the MPC’s rose-tinted expectations…
- …Its reasons for optimism are short-lived in nature; we still consider two 25bp cuts this year possible.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesia’s Ramadan demand this year ends with a whimper
Malaysian retail sales growth slows in April, despite friendly base effects
We’ll swallow the Philippines' big April deficit, as imports showed signs of life
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
An RBI cut in August now certainly looks off the table
The policy-induced upswing in Thai inflation shouldn’t bother the MPC
Don’t put too much stock into the April leap in Philippine sales
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Formal dissent in the RBI grew this month, but we’ll now likely have to wait until October for the first cut.
- The base-effect and policy-driven upswing in Thai CPI should be ignored by the MPC this week.
- Taiwanese export growth disappointed in May, but not enough to derail the overall recovery.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
