Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- Vietnamese export growth plunged into the red in January, but this can be explained fully by Tet noise.
- The January jump in inflation to a six-month high was policy-induced; again, no need to panic.
- The BSP isn’t too fussed by the upside surprise in January inflation; official core has clearly bottomed.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian GDP growth stayed at 5% in Q4, but we reckon in reality it was closer to the mid-4% range.
- The unsustainable Q3 boost from stocks reversed, but this was offset by statistical discrepancies.
- Government spending and exports were the real—tangible—bright spots, countering capex softness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The PMIs show that regional manufacturing is still largely waning; watch for potential US front-loading.
- Indonesia’s shockingly low January CPI was policy-induced and will reverse; it masked a jump in food.
- Fiscal policy in India will stay contractionary, but the government riskily is hoping for a pain-free FY26.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Not the best of starts to 2025 for ASEAN manufacturing
A huge, albeit temporary, CPI gift from Indonesia’s new government
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A respectable Q4 comeback, to close out 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Support from cash stimulus starting to surface, if you squint.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We reckon Indonesian GDP growth fell ‘sharply’ to 4.7% in Q4, especially with payback due in stocks.
- Thailand’s full consumption data for Q4 show the first handout in September provided no real boost.
- The complete details of Vietnam’s hot Q4 GDP show that it was driven very narrowly by education.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Stable Q4 headline hides renewed deterioration in Philippine private consumption
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
