- In one line: Food disinflation strikes again; consumer non-durables IP stages a partial rebound.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s shockingly low February CPI was no surprise to us; now expect near-term stability in food CPI…
- …Look for the consensus to move closer to our 3.8% average CPI forecast for 2025; an April cut is a go.
- IP growth rebounded strongly in January, pointing to an early manufacturing cushion for Q1 growth.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A not-too-damning payback from the modest front-running, pre-VAT hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia sank in January as the pre-VAT-hike front-loading unwound.
- The current recovery in consumer confidence—if it holds—points to 2% average sales growth in 2025…
- …Faster growth will be hard to achieve, with spending already above-average in terms of income use.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s export growth really accelerated in February and was almost double consensus…
- …Driven by strong growth in exports to the US, with some recovery in demand from China.
- Headline inflation eased because of Lunar New Year base effects; food and housing remain stubborn.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Dragged down by transportation and communication base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine sales growth remains sturdy, but the remittance lift should soon reverse
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The low rate of Philippine unemployment has been range-bound for over a year, but red flags are rising.
- The respectable rate of sales growth could soon turn, as the PHP boost to remittances fades away.
- The February slip in Thai inflation was a base-effect story, but sub-1% prints are still around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Finally seeing signs of US front-loading in Vietnamese exports, Tet noise aside
Ignore the official slip, sales growth strengthened in February
Food inflation noesdives with the help of residual Tet noise
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s first trade deficit since mid-2022 was due partly to Tet noise, masking a spike in US exports…
- …Payback will eventually follow the front-loading of US demand; FDI is feeling the tariff uncertainty.
- The soft February CPI should be all the BSP needs to resume rate cuts at its next meeting in April.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Door now wide open for the BSP to resume easing in April
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Revisions to Taiwan’s GDP show that Q4 growth, at 2.9%, exceeded initial expectations.
- Consumption has been cooling from its post-Covid highs and is around its pre-pandemic average…
- …The 2025 trajectory for this component, using Google Trends searches, looks unimpressive.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
A 7-month high for ASEAN’s PMI, but no clear signs of US front-loading, yet
A surprising—though likely temporary—dip into outright deflation in Indonesia
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI leapt suddenly in February to a seven-month high of 51.5…
- …But it seems to have been flattered by residual seasonality, and pockets of weakness still persist.
- The descent into outright deflation in Indonesia should be short-lived, as the power relief expires.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Offsetting base effects all over the place; momentum is solid, otherwise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A trade- and consumption-driven bounce; the economy is still operating below potential.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A surprisingly fast start to 2025 for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s Q4 GDP print was exactly in line wit expectations, at 6.2%, rebounding from 5.6%…
- …Consumption, mainly rural, continues to find its feet, while exports—especially services—are flying.
- The Philippines’ structural RRR cuts are likely over, but they are no substitute for lower TRR rates.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
RBI RATE CUTS FINALLY HERE; EXPECT 2 MORE IN Q2
- …THAI GROWTH HAS LIKELY PEAKED, PROMPTING A BOT CUT
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
