18 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor BI makes it clear, by omission, that its rate-cutting cycle is over

• Bank Indonesia held rates yesterday, as expected, and no longer pledged to find room for more cuts.
• We lower our estimate for India’s current account deficit this year to -3.0% of GDP, due to the oil crisis.
• Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports for January- to-February point to 49.7% growth in electronics.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, February 2026

• In one line: Big short-term downside risks to the deficit due to the Iran war.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16 March 2026

Iran war forcing an upgrade to our 2026 India WPI forecast to 5%

16 March 2026 Emerging Asia EA activity heap maps; major exporters still outperforming

• Introducing our regional activity heat maps, giving a snapshot of cyclical growth stage and momentum…
• …They show that major exporters continue to outperform domestic-oriented peers in early 2026.
• Indian inflation rose further in February on food prices; our 4.0% view for 2026 remains appropriate.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, February 2026

• In one line: Still mainly a food story, but Middle East pressures should surface in the March data.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 12 March 2026

Brace for a potential inflation hit to Malaysian retail sales growth this year

13 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Will the Middle East crisis lead to a pullback in Malaysian spending?

• Malaysian January retail sales volumes dipped on a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis.
• We expect a mild increase in inflation over the year because of the Middle East crisis...
• …Which could create risks to financial stability, via higher debt, if it doesn’t curb consumer spending.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 March 2026

A decent, if unimpressive, start to the year for Indonesian retail sales

11 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Oil price lands an instant punch in the Philippines and Vietnam

• The Philippines’ staggered fuel hikes won’t stop inflation from jumping above 3% this month…
• …Vietnam’s much larger adjustment bolsters our view that the SBV will hike rates at least once in H2.
• The modest pace of Indonesian retail sales growth is looking increasingly fragile once again.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, Taiwan, February

• In one line: AI server growth moderating.

10 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor India and Indonesia will be backed into fuel hikes, but not yet rate hikes

• The spike and projected stickiness in oil prices due to the Middle East unrest is now material for Asia…
• …We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecasts for India and Indonesia to 4.0% and 2.9%, respectively.
• Taiwan’s exports moderated in February amid Lunar New Year noise, but now face serious energy risk.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, February

• In one line: Lunar New Year distortions.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 March 2026

Don’t stress about the February collapse in Vietnamese export growth
A disappointing Tet season for retail sales in Vietnam
Raising our 2026 average inflation forecast for Vietnam to 3.7%
Strong end-2025 momentum in Philippine sales carrying over to early-2025

9 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's disinflationary spell likely over, due to Middle East conflict

• Taiwanese CPI rose to 1.8% in February, but it’s just Lunar New Year noise; a bigger issue is at hand...
• … A likely increase in fuel prices will hit Q2 inflation, though we still expect no rate hike.
• Tet noise means that Vietnam’s ‘ weak’ February exports should be ignored; the hot CPI less so.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Taiwan, January 2026

• In one line: Spending on big items is failing to recover.  

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Thailand, February 2026

• In one line: Diesel fix still more than safe; shading our 2026 forecast.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Negara Malaysia Decision, March 2026

• In one line: Members hold rates, but seem spooked by the Middle East crisis. 

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 March 2026

Don’t read too much into the Lunar New Year noise in Singapore’s January sales
Returning food inflation drives Philippine inflation up higher; BSP target still safe

6 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor BNM maintains rates but is holding its breath on the Middle East

• BNM held rates at 2.75%, as expected, but its statement carried an unusually cautious tone.
• Singapore’s January retail sales were weaker than expected, but highly distorted by Lunar New Year.
• We raise our 2026 CPI call for the Philippines and cut that on Thailand; the difference is fuel policy.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 March 2026

Rising domestic and external demand lifting most boats in ASEAN