Firmer employment cushions a marginal softening in orders and output in India’s April manufacturing PMI
India’s services PMI remains comfortably above 60; thankfully, April saw an easing in price pressures
Singapore's inflation outlook remains challenging, depsite the March drop
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s surplus leapt unexpectedly to a 13-month high, with exports reversing their 2024 drop.
- The outlook for key commodities has brightened, pointing to an imminent return to positive growth…
- …Real demand from China also looks set to pop, but this probably won’t be felt until Q2, at the earliest.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Things are suddenly turning up for Indonesian exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth plummeted in March, but our advice is to take the figure in your stride...
- ...As the headline was dragged down by a series of one-off factors that should unwind in April.
- Indonesian retail sales growth spiked during the February election; don’t expect any follow-through.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Net sales growth in the Philippines remains in the red; remittances now look unlikely to save the day.
- The consumer debt binge is lasting much longer than we thought, but the payback is looming.
- The much-needed savings rebuild looks to be reversing, and confidence is now plunging.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian industrial production growth rebounded in February, but the climate remains challenging…
- …The inventory-to-sales ratio continues to deteriorate, while consumer demand is sagging.
Core inflation fell to a new low in March; thankfully, food-price stickiness isn’t impacting expectations.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Little real good news from the smallest deficit in nearly a year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A simultaneous easing in manufactured products and fuel & power deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: LPG price cut pulls inflation down below 5% for the first time since October; don’t be fooled by the jolt in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Base effects are masking lacklustre momentum in Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Independence sufficiently proven, prep for a June cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT yesterday sprang no surprise, keeping its policy rate at 2.50% in another five-to-two split…
- …But its latest forecasts and rhetoric betray waning confidence; we continue to see the first cut in June.
- Taiwanese export growth rebounded strongly in March; watch the boom in AI-related shipments.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP held rates yesterday but sounded more hawkish, raising its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.0%.
- We still expect 100bp in cuts this year, with the first in June; food inflation will start co-operating in May.
- Another day, another Lunar New Year boost to February retail sales growth; this time in Malaysia.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The big drop in Vietnamese GDP growth to 5.7% in Q1 was due mainly to seasonal noise unwinding…
- …Trade enjoyed a robust start to the year, but the same cannot be said for household spending.
- We push back our expectation for the first BI cut to Q4, given rising and stubborn food inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A y/y bounce inflated by base effects, but trends at the margin are finally turning.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia