PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 September 2024

Indonesia’s PMI is going from bad to worse, hitting the ASEAN headline

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 September 2024

Steady headline masks continued food disinflation in Indonesia

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Q2 GDP and July Core Production, India

• In one line: Unwinding of discrepancy boost in Q2 hides early signs of a revival in consumption.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, June

• In one line: Continue to ignore; households are still struggling.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 September 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Still further for CPI in Indonesia to fall, despite a steady August

• Indonesia’s main inflation gauges were unchanged in August: the headline at 2.1% and core at 2.0%…
• …But food inflation remains a big drag and will likely pull the headline below 1.5% at the turn of the year.
• The budget deficit has ballooned this year, but 2025 looks set to see only marginal subsidy reductions.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 September 2024 Emerging Asia Rural consumption reviving, but India's GDP slowdown isn't over

• India’s Q2 GDP was hit largely by the unwinding of the discrepancy boost, hiding a consumer bump.
• The Q3 PMIs so far point to a further slowdown, and business expectations continue to sour rapidly.
• The pressure on households persists, but the gap between liabilities and asset growth is closing.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia