- Bank Indonesia surprised the universal consensus for a hold this month, lowering the BI rate to 5.75%…
- …The Board is right to tolerate the rupiah’s dollar- driven slump, amid its rising GDP growth worries.
- Ignore the December collapse in the trade surplus; smoothing out the noise yields a rising trend.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Expect a quieter year for Indian WPI inflation in 2025
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI fell more comfortably within the RBI’s target range in December, clearing the way for a rate cut…
- …More downside is in store for food inflation, but the upward normalisation in the core isn’t over yet.
- The rupee’s weakness of late probably has the RBI’s blessing; it’s been kept stable for far too long.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Carpet being rolled out for a February rate cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A credible pop in growth, Diwali noise aside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesian sales growth should at least settle at a floor, shortly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s 6.4% advance GDP estimate for 2024/25 is on the rosy side and includes contradictory details…
- …The slowdown isn’t over, and we can’t see how the FAE squares rising demand with falling imports.
- Retail sales in Indonesia appear to have ended 2024 ver y softly; this is oddly reassuring.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Real import demand in the Philippines was due a correction
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s export growth moderated in December, though the headline was tarnished by base effects…
- …Import growth nearly doubled to 30.4%, from 19.8% in November, pulling down the trade surplus.
- Headline inflation remained stubborn in December, at 2.1%, due to a continued rise in food inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Huge revisions put a more positive spin on Philippine sales
Oil-sensitive components drive the December rise in inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Philippine inflation surprised to the upside in December, but the culprits should be temporary…
- …We still see average inflation of just 2.4% in 2025; core inflation isn’t yet making a real comeback.
- Thai CPI was softer than expected last month, and the 2025 consensus could do with a downgrade.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Vietnam surprised to the upside in Q4, rising to 7.6% from 7.4% in Q3…
- …Services popped, thanks to a leap in tourism, but we’re sceptical about the strength in overall retail.
- Industrial growth—while still healthy—moderated; signs point to more softness in early 2025, at least.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A scorching end to 2024 for Vietnamese services
Exports in Vietnam are once again finding their feet
Not buying the five-month high in Vietnamese sales growth
Vietnamese inflation stays under 3% for a fourth month
Turnaround in Thai transportation & communication CPI should soon peak
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The manufacturing PMI for ASEAN slipped in December, to 50.7, as its DM members faltered…
- …But the headline is largely stabilising, as orders find their feet while price pressures remain muted.
- Indonesian CPI sprung no surprises in December; consensus seems blind to further food disinflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
December manufacturing let down by developed ASEAN
Reassuringly unchanged readings for Indonesian CPI to close out 2024
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The deceptively inflated rate of Thai retail sales growth masks a tepid response to the handout…
- …Consumer confidence is at least stabilising; rising wage growth, while encouraging, looks very fragile.
- Core IP in India continues to recover from the August plunge, with monthly trends now improving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Our final forecast sees GDP growth in Vietnam cooling to 6.5% in Q4, from 7.4% in Q3…
- …The moderation should be broad-based, though quirky residual seasonal effects pose upside risks.
- Household spending is still struggling; the recent pop in car sales is a policy-induced head-fake.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s deficit blow-out in November was down mainly to gold imports, which are just normalising…
- …Safe-haven demand for gold isn’t relevant now, and the current account gap is still manageable.
- The CBC’s ongoing pause remains justified; anxieties over the property market will continue.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP lowered the target reverse repo rate for a third straight meeting, by 25bp to 5.75%…
- …While maintaining its goal of “less restrictive” policy, despite expecting higher inflation next year.
- We expect average inflation to fall further in 2025, opening the door wide to 100bp more cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
