- Our final Q3 GDP growth forecast for India sees it collapsing further to 6.0%, from 6.7% in Q2…
- …Falling short of the RBI’s view for a bounce to 7.0% and keeping the door open to a December rate cut.
- October CPI was very hot, but food inflation—and, by extension, the headline—likely has peaked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Frustratingly slow recovery in Indonesian retail sales continues
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales growth is faltering—again—amid low real wage growth and fading confidence…
- …Sentiment has yet to see any rise despite falling inflation and the promise of a new government.
- Job expectations are still deteriorating the most; soft consumption looks set to continue in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Philippine GDP growth dropped sharply to 5.2% in Q3, from 6.4% in Q2, decisively below expectations.
- Our seasonal adjustment shows that growth lost quarterly momentum; households remain anaemic.
- The capex outlook is no longer deteriorating, but BSP policy looks set to remain tighter; thank Trump.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
GDP growth in the Philippines plunges to a five-quarter low
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Vietnamese exports are once again losing momentum
The softening in ‘official’ retail sales growth in Vietnam is far from over
The impact of Yagi on Vietnamese food inflation continues to be felt
The ghost of the short-lived previous administration pushes Thai inflation up further in October
Philippine sales had a forgetful Q3 at the end of the day; all eyes on tomorrow's GDP release
An abysmal September effectively has written off Q3 for Philippine exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Export growth in Vietnam fell further in October; this will persist, with momentum and orders fading.
- Mr. Trump's proposed tariffs could be a ‘win’ for Vietnam, if it isn’t targeted with specific measures…
- …His own corporate interests locally might mitigate the risks, but the VND will stay in the spotlight.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Inventories spike keeps Indonesian GDP growth from slowing more sharply in Q3
Inflation in the Philippines should stabilise near the lower end of the BSP’s range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Indonesia missed expectations in Q3, slipping to 4.9% from 5.0% in Q2…
- …An historic leap in inventories prevented a sharper drop, but this sets up a painful payback in Q4.
- Trade and related investment were real bright spots, while consumption remains relatively lacklustre.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The PMI for ASEAN was unchanged in October, at 50.5, despite a post-Yagi bounce-back in Vietnam…
- …Export-oriented countries, at large, have lost a lot of steam recently, in a warning sign for world trade.
- Indonesia’s sluggishness is a huge drag, given its sheer size; the rise in lead times is reversing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We see Indonesian GDP growth slipping to 4.8% in Q3 on waning consumption and a modest trade hit .
- Government spending and investment should offer some cushion, partly with help from base effects.
- Philippine GDP growth likely relapsed to 4.6% in Q3, in line with the sluggishness in consumption.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The minutes of the RBI’s October meeting suggest a possible pathway to a 4-to-2 cut in December.
- Core IP growth should bounce modestly in September, but largely on a base-effect technicality.
- Taiwanese GDP growth likely slowed further in Q3, to 3.4%, as support from domestic demand wanes.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s PMIs start Q4 on a cautiously better note, after the September carnage
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for October show a bounce in both surveys from the painful September plunge.
- The moderating trend from the Q1 highs is still intact, though; the same is true for leading gauges.
- Both surveys suggest that hiring is going gang-busters, but we aren’t moved, looking at the EPFO.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A SECOND BOT CUT IN DECEMBER IS TOUCH-AND-GO
- …THE RBI TURNS ‘NEUTRAL’; ALL EYES ON Q3 GDP
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- An overdue revival in manufacturing drove almost all of Singapore’s hot advance Q3 GDP surprise…
- …But this may be a one-off, as export growth likely will cool soon; the construction outlook is still solid.
- Adverse export base effects should see trade hitting India’s Q3 GDP; we’ll be downgrading our 6.4% call.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Thailand finally joined the regional easing wave, surprising with a 25bp policy rate cut…
- …Our dovish view was vindicated, and we still expect another cut in December if Q3 GDP disappoints.
- We reckon it’s too early to rule out a shift to 50bp cuts by the BSP; policy remains extremely tight.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Thank a big reversal in the August leap in gold imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
