Exports and public spending helped to keep Indonesia’s ship absurdly 'steady’ in Q4
Philippine inflation should start to move sideways from here
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnamese export growth plunged into the red in January, but this can be explained fully by Tet noise.
- The January jump in inflation to a six-month high was policy-induced; again, no need to panic.
- The BSP isn’t too fussed by the upside surprise in January inflation; official core has clearly bottomed.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian GDP growth stayed at 5% in Q4, but we reckon in reality it was closer to the mid-4% range.
- The unsustainable Q3 boost from stocks reversed, but this was offset by statistical discrepancies.
- Government spending and exports were the real—tangible—bright spots, countering capex softness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The PMIs show that regional manufacturing is still largely waning; watch for potential US front-loading.
- Indonesia’s shockingly low January CPI was policy-induced and will reverse; it masked a jump in food.
- Fiscal policy in India will stay contractionary, but the government riskily is hoping for a pain-free FY26.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Not the best of starts to 2025 for ASEAN manufacturing
A huge, albeit temporary, CPI gift from Indonesia’s new government
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A respectable Q4 comeback, to close out 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Support from cash stimulus starting to surface, if you squint.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We reckon Indonesian GDP growth fell ‘sharply’ to 4.7% in Q4, especially with payback due in stocks.
- Thailand’s full consumption data for Q4 show the first handout in September provided no real boost.
- The complete details of Vietnam’s hot Q4 GDP show that it was driven very narrowly by education.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Stable Q4 headline hides renewed deterioration in Philippine private consumption
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Philippines’ Q4 GDP growth missed expectations for a rise, with the headline steady at 5.2%…
- …Private domestic demand relapsed, and the quarterly lift from net trade isn’t much to celebrate.
- 2025 growth should stay largely subdued, at 5.4%, especially with investment likely to slow further.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s GDP growth in Q4 was weaker than expected, at 1.8%, down from 4.2% in Q3…
- …Every component, except investment, was weaker quarter-to-quarter, especially net exports.
- The MAS finally pivoted; expect more easing to come, with core inflation under heavy pressure.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s key services PMI plunged to a 15-month low to start the year
A largely unwelcome consolidation of the Philippines’ trade deficit in late-2024
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s key services PMI has plunged to a 15-month low; the Q1 data so far point clearly to a GDP drop.
- We expect only a modest bounce in GDP growth in the Philippines in Q4, to 5.4%, from 5.2% in Q3.
- Thai exports stayed solid in Q4, but equally robust imports mute their lift, and downside risks prevail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A robust end to the year for Thai exports, despite flattening DM demand
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s retail sales look like they are picking up, as growth rose to 2.9% year-over-year in December.
- This is not the whole story; paradoxically, inflation continues to bolster the headline figure.
- Three typhoons, stubborn inflation and high credit costs have led to sluggish increases in volumes.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s volatile gold imports corrected sharply in December, but their upward normalisation is intact.
- Total exports enjoyed a solid Q4, as the goods side revived, though services faltered heading into 2025.
- Net trade should hit Q4 GDP by 0.2pp, down from +1.5pp in Q3, due to adverse import base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Every major city in Taiwan is now “impossibly unaffordable”; the housing bubble is expanding.
- The central bank is trying to dampen demand, but overly aggressive policies may create a crisis...
- …The opposite, however, would increase the risk of a more severe housing-price crash down the line.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Gold imports correct sharply—again—but their broad trend is upwards.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A genuine surprise; at least three more cuts this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Ignore the volatility, Indonesia's trade surplus is growing, slowly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
