6 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI surveys say "what 50% tariff?"... momentum waning regardless

• The RBI’s latest IOS shows that exporters, for now, remain largely unfazed by Trump’s 50% tariff…
• …Nevertheless, the actual industry assessment for Q3 shows further softening in output and orders.
• It’s early doors, but surveys show no aggregate price cuts in the pipeline in the wake of GST 2.0.

3 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Surprise leap in Indonesia's surplus in August isn't worth celebrating

• Indonesia’s trade surplus surprised massively to the upside in August, but largely on seasonal factors…
• …Underlying two-way trade growth continues to ebb; exports are fighting a handful of headwinds.
• Inflation rose above BI’s 2.5% target for the first time in over a year, but a Q4 rate cut is still on the table.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 October 2025

The RBI’s pause continues, but further easing is still very much on the table
A sturdy—but narrow—end-Q3 bump in ASEAN manufacturing
Ignore the August jump in Indonesia's surplus; import demand is crashing
Food inflation is firming up fast in Indonesia, but core disinflation is a strong anchor

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, July

• In one line: A collapse long in the making; still some way to go before growth falls back down to earth.

2 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Still a matter of when, not if, the RBI will cut again; we look for December

• The RBI stayed on hold yesterday, but two members called for more dovish implied forward guidance…
• …Its latest GDP forecasts reveal no real faith in the stimulative impact of GST 2.0; we concur.
• Bank on ASEAN’s robust September PMI at your own risk, as underlying it is a very skewed picture.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 September 2025

Real import demand in the Philippines has had a bleak Q3, so far

1 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's IP Q3-to-date: more robust than Q2, but with a few caveats

• Ignore the miss in Indian IP in August; the recent stasis is breaking, and the fixed capex signal is solid.
• Retail sales growth in Thailand crashed back down to earth in July, but expect much more softness…
• …Consumption growth is seeing some stability alongside tourist arrivals; local demand is still weak.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, August

• In one line: A consumer-led dip, but durables growth is probably bottoming-out.

25 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai front-running to the US is over, only pain and downside risks ahead

• Thai customs export growth missed expectations in August, as the surge in US shipments finally turned.
• Short-term leading indicators point to much more downside ahead, while THB strength will only hurt.
• The one consolation is that the supply-side reaction to falling exports is unlikely to be as painful.

29 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI would be foolish to hold; Indonesia's 2026 budget set to fail

• The RBI’s meeting on Wednesday is ‘live’, and we’re with the minority for a fresh 25bp rate cut.
• Indonesia’s final 2026 budget—that is, Mr. Purbaya’s first—reveals his less hawkish hand…
• …We’re more convinced now that the deficit will hit the 3%-of-GDP limit in 2026, given the rosy targets.

September 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

IGNORE INDIA’S ‘HOT’ Q2 GDP; Q3 SHAPING UP TO BE
MUCH MORE SOLID

• …FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY IN INDONESIA IS IN FLUX

26 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwanese retail sales finally turn expansionary after four months

• Taiwan's retail sales growth finally rebounded, to +0.4% in August, after months of constant falls.
• This was supported by a milder drop in auto sales, which could recover if a US trade deal is agreed.
• All told, still-weak consumption reflects flat wages,a soft property market and slumping tourism.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 September 2025

Thai front-running to the US is now reversing

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 September 2025

A soft-ish end to Q3, but Indian momentum is still largely improving

24 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's lukewarm September PMIs amid huge offsetting events

• India’s flash PMIs only stumbled in September; no big tariff hit or boost from goods and service tax…
• …The complete numbers for Q3 point to GDP growth of 7.4%, posing upside risks to our 7.0% call.
• Malaysian inflation ticked up in August; we see increased upward risks for the rest of the year.

EM Asia Datanote: Core IP, India, August

• In one line: Driven almost exclusively by a V-shaped bounce in coal output.

22 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor The Philippines' new ICI body; short-term pain for long-term gain

• The Philippines’ new anti-corruption drive in public projects is likely to stymie activity in the short run…
• …But needs must, as governance has been eroding, making Manila an even bigger laggard in the region.
• Malaysia's exports moderated in August, though we are still optimistic, considering the PMI data.

19 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Growth not putting pressure on CBC to cut, but inflation is easing

• Taiwan's central bank kept the discount rate at 2.000% yesterday, which was no surprise to anyone.
• Economic growth is likely to be much stronger in Q3; we have upgraded our forecast to 8.4%.
• Strong export growth is reducing the need for a rate cut, notwithstanding weak consumption.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, September 2025

• In one line: Third time (un)lucky.

18 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Three consecutive surprises from BI and we expect another in October

• Bank Indonesia shocked the consensus—yet again—with a third straight 25bp BI rate cut.
• Indian export growth barely moved in August, masking a bigger nosedive in shipments to the US.
• Talks with Washington have resumed amid a drop in India’s oil imports; lower tariffs in Q4 still possible.