Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- Malaysian headline export growth slowed in June on weaker re-export and electronics growth…
- …Adverse base effects dominated the headline damage though, masking a monthly improvement.
- The electronics recovery and stronger commodities exports should support headline growth in H2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Another month, another hold; we still see cuts in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore ended H2 on a disappointing note…
- …As electronics and non-monetary gold exports slumped, even as intermediate goods rose.
- Electronics exports look unlikely to regain May’s high, but H2 should still see a growth recovery.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Overdue crash in oil imports masks a further—welcome—rise in non-oil imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Two-way goods trade in Indonesia rebounded robustly in Q2, mainly thanks to EM demand…
- …But the tourism recovery is still waning; expect a 0.9pp net trade lift to GDP, up from -0.2pp in Q1.
- Food price pressures in India are building again, forcing us to raise our 2024 and 2025 CPI outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Likely the peak for 2024, barring any fresh shocks.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
June slip in Indonesian export growth should be short-lived
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Vegetable prices are rearing their ugly head, again; industry is back to a two-track growth, this time with consumer durables racing ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Improving external demand supports Singapore's consensus-beating Q2 GDP
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singapore’s Q2 GDP beat the consensus thanks to the recovery in goods-producing industries...
- ...Powered by an upswing in manufacturing and robust construction activity.
- We raise our 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.4% previously, up from 1.1% in 2023.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Optimistic on growth but increased uncertainty on inflation.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BNM held its policy rate this month, as it waits to see the impact of the diesel-subsidy removal…
- …A relatively strong growth outlook is providing it with the bandwidth for a continued pause.
- Malaysian GDP growth likely improved to 4.8% year-over-year in Q2, from 4.2% in Q1.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Base effects pull Philippine trade growth back down to earth
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s trade performance in June blew the consensus out of the water…
- …As export and import growth surprised hugely to the upside, thanks to the recovery in electronics.
- The Philippines’ trade deficit has been growing since the start of Q2; exports should pick up soon.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Blowing the consensus out of the water.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
How long will the bounce in Indonesian sales last with confidence fading?
Philippine sales growth continues to fluctuate wildly around zero
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales growth saw only a tepid rebound in May, to 2.1%, with confidence waning…
- …The only good news is that retailers’ sales expectations is finally seeing a turnaround.
- Sales momentum in the Philippines is even weaker, with no clear light at the end of the tunnel.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Faster goods inflation pushes up the headline.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
