- In one line: Should be just a temporary drop below the BoT’s target range.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The turn in Philippine inflation is finally here
Vehicle sales in Singapore continue to flatter headline retail sales
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Extremely good CPI data for June, if like us you expect the BSP and the BoT to cut rates in August.
- Taiwanese headline inflation picked up in June on goods inflation, amid still-sticky services inflation.
- A continued improvement in external demand should see Singaporean GDP growth rise in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian inflation fell more quickly than expected in June, to 2.5%, as food disinflation intensified…
- …Bolstering our below-consensus CPI and BI rate forecasts; we still expect 50bp of cuts in Q4.
- The ongoing rise in manufacturing momentum in ASEAN looks durable, with activity more balanced.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Vietnam leapt to 6.9% in Q2, easily beating all expectations; we now see 6.5% for 2024.
- That said, industry and services remain historically sub-par, and industry is likely to face a tougher H2.
- The tourism recovery is still going strong, helping services, but the credit data are raising red flags.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
ASEAN manufacturing ends H1 on a solid note
Food disinflation in Indonesia intensifies, returning the headline rate back to BI’s target
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Inflated—yet again—by ‘other’ retail sales; ignore.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The year-over-year slump in Thai consumption growth has bled into Q2, amid poor wage growth.
- The Q4 handout is unlikely to offer real relief, with more households struggling just to pay off debt.
- Philippines’ household savings rose in 2023 for the first time since 2019; the battle is far from over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A more dovish hold, unfazed by the peso’s wobble.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP’s rate hold yesterday was very dovish, and its rhetoric signals an August cut more clearly.
- The Board has taken the opportunity offered by the rice-tariff cut to recalibrate its cautious CPI bias…
- …Its risk-adjusted CPI forecasts are now snugly within the target range; GDP is back on the agenda.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
THE ‘REAL’ ECONOMY WHICH LET DOWN MODI’S BJP
- …NOTE THE NUANCE IN MALAYSIA’S DIESEL-SUBSIDY REFORM
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian headline inflation picked up in May due to a sharp rise in the price of streaming services…
- …It will rise further in June, as the lift from the diesel-subsidy removal shows up in the data.
- Labour-market tightness also looks set to stoke inflation, changes to administered prices aside.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Headline inflation in Singapore rose in May, as higher COE prices pushed up transport inflation…
- …But the real story is core inflation staying at 3.1% for a third straight month, due to sticky services.
- The Taiwanese retail outlook looks weak for now, but the likelihood of stronger wage growth has risen.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Weakness in consumer demand remains, despite improvement in headline.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Core inflation in Singapore remains unchanged in May, despite headline rise
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A not-so-emphatic return to the black, once adjusted for seasonality.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A decent end to Q2 for India's sky-high, if questionable, PMIs
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s sky-high PMIs were mixed in Q2; services lost steam, but manufacturing hit new heights…
- …The year- over-year story is soft, though, with both gauges combined pointing to sub -6% GDP growth.
- Hiring has supposedly gone up a level in recent months, but the hard data tell a very different story.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia