- In one line: No major surprises; red carpet being relaid for rate cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s exports beat expectations in November, but the underlying story is more complex.
- Demand from the US continues to slip, but monthly trends appear to be stabilising at the very least.
- Inflation in November was hot, but most of this was likely due to a weather-related bump in food price
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Q3 bounce in Indonesian retail sales growth is over, with consumer confidence still fading…
- …Weak sentiment is a bigger long-run worry than the coming VAT hike, especially with inflation so low.
- The ballooning of the Philippines’ trade deficit reflects in large part renewed misery for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
An unexpectedly weak start to Q4 for Indonesian retail sales
The bad—and good—aspects of the Philippines’ widening trade deficit
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The RBI takes a halfway-house approach in response to the grim Q3 GDP
Philippine sales fall to their lowest level in over a year
High base from last year’s healthcare price rises pulls Vietnamese inflation down in November
Vietnamese sales growth remains sluggish, in reality
Ignore the headline trade misses, the real story is that Vietnamese export momentum is waning, rapidly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Philippines’ consensus-matching CPI print for November sets the stage nicely for a third rate cut.
- Food disinflation led to the downside CPI surprise in Thailand last month, but expect no December cut.
- Taiwan’s Q3 GDP grow th fell to 4.2%, from 4.9% in Q2; blame consumption, stocks and net exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A market-matching CPI reading to set up another BSP cut
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI held the repo rate on Friday in a closer four-to-two vote, but surprised with a 50bp CRR cut…
- … A lot can change before the February repo cut we expect ; a new, dovish governor and lower food CPI.
- Vietnam’s November trade headlines missed badly, but the real story is underlying weakness in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Continued food disinflation in Thailand mutes the headline’s November uptick
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The manufacturing PMI for ASEAN ticked up to 50.8 in November, but its downtrend remains intact.
- More softness is in store heading into 2025; activity is uneven, and forward-looking gauges are falling.
- Indonesian inflation fell further in November to a 40-month low, opening the door more to rate cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A narrow and likely short-lived uptick in ASEAN’s PMI for November
Inflation moves closer to the lower bound of BI’s target range; S/T stability coming
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A modest acceleration, and one that was flattered by Diwali calendar effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The boost from ‘other’ sales fades, again; no noticeable immediate lift from the first cash-handout.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales in Taiwan unexpectedly fell by 0.5% year-over-year in October…
- …The Ministry of Economic Affairs attributes this to Typhoon Kong-rey; we see more to the story.
- We are optimistic that sales will bounce back inNovember, as one-off headwinds reverse.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
EM ASIA IS PARTICULARLY EXPOSED TO ‘TRUMP 2.0’
- …INDONESIA AND THE PHILIPPINES DISAPPOINT IN Q3
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Thai exports jump to a fresh high on the back of an ASEAN bump
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s customs trade balance has been deteriorating modestly for a few months…
- …Masking a now-complete recovery in nominal exports from their painful 2022 slump.
- No room for complacency, as leading indicators remain weak and the supply side is still sleeping.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Steady slide in India’s PMIs continues, despite the November pop in services
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The general downtrend in India’s PMIs is still very much in play, de spite the November services pop.
- Hiring is supposedly going gangbusters, based on the PMI, but the hard data still tell a different story.
- Indonesia is pushing ahead with a VAT hike to 12% in January; the last rise in 2022 is uninformative.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
