- In one line: Vehicle sales fail to offset retail weakness in Singapore.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Goods inflation U-turns, while services inflation remains sticky.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese headline inflation was above the consensus in May, as goods disinflation U-turned...
- …Services inflation remained above 2%, on high rental prices and a still-tight labour market.
- A better growth outlook could spur the CBC to raise rates next week to combat inflation expectations.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Tough start to Q2 for Singaporean consumption
No breach of the BSP’s inflation target range to see here
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales growth in Singapore disappointed hugely in April, falling to a new post-pandemic low...
- …We suspect that a shift to overseas spending was the main culprit, as income growth still looks strong.
- The risk of CPI re-breaching the BSP’s target range continues to wane, on fading non-core pressures.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BJP’s disappointing result in the 2024 election means the risk of coalition politics in India is back.
- The PMI for ASEAN rebounded well in May, thanks to the fragile recovery of the region’s key exporters.
- Indonesia’s softer-than-expected May CPI bolsters our dovish 2024 view on rates and inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
TAIWAN’S PUNCHY Q1 GDP IS AS GOOD AS IT’LL GET
- …ELECTION TAILWINDS IN INDONESIA’S Q1 ARE IRREPLICABLE
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Exports—alone—steal the show in Q1, papering over a continued slowdown in domestic demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, with growth slowing only modestly to 7.8% from 8.6% in Q4…
- …But an unsustainable jump in exports was the lone bright spot; domestic demand continues to slow.
- The slowdown in investment growth is intensifying, while private consumption remains woefully subpar.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The sustainability of two-way trade growth in Vietnam is our key concern, not the big May deficit.
- A modest bounce-back in GDP growth for Q2 looks secured, but households remain a huge weak spot.
- Inflation will flirt more closely with the 4.5% ceiling in June, but this should be the peak this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singapore’s headline and core inflation both appear to be stabilising, but unfortunately at a high rate...
- ...above the MAS’ comfort level, implying that any loosening of policy would be in Q4, at the earliest.
- Malaysian headline inflation is likely to rise from now on, averaging slightly over 2% for the year.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A reassuring bounce in exports narrows the Songkran-adjusted deficit substantially.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Malaysian inflation comes in at 1.8% for a third consecutive month
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Expect growth to struggle for the rest of Q2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s lofty manufacturing PMI is becoming more well-rounded
India’s unreliable flash services PMI is still plateauing
Higher utilities inflation in Singapore offsets food disinflation in April
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Our final forecast for India’s Q1 GDP next week sees growth slow to 6.2%, from 8.4% in Q4…
- …The hits should come from an import bounce, weaker public spending and a plunge in valuables.
- Taiwanese retail sales will remain subdued for the rest of Q2, but a late -H2 recovery is in the works.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia