- Electronics to the US for AI-related investment continue to support Taiwanese export growth…
- …This demand is likely to remain firm, but its strong performance hides weakness elsewhere.
- The July fall in Malaysian retail sales growth is more likely stabilisation, rather than real weakness.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: One trick, AI pony continues to support trade.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Vietnamese exports are regaining momentum, thanks in large part to US demand
We’ve seen enough; downgrading our inflation forecasts for Vietnam
Actual retail sales growth in Vietnam remains in the log single-digit range
The latest slump in Philippine sales is starting to bottom out, just
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus barely moved in August , but exports to the US are flying…
- …We still expect GDP growth to slip modestly in Q3, with IP and retail sales clearly losing momentum.
- Philippine CPI returned quickly to the BSP's range in August; the door ’s ajar for a 50bp cut in October.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BNM is likely to stay on hold for the rest of 2024, faced with slowing CPI and a strong GDP outlook.
- Taiwanese CPI is set to benefit from slower imported inflation, but rental growth is still a worry.
- Singaporean retail sales growth is likely to remain weak for most of H2, barring friendly base effects.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Sticky housing inflation keeps headline elevated.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine inflation falls back dramatically into the BSP’s target range, thanks to food base effects
The return of transportation and communication deflation in Thailand should be short-lived
Soft start for Singaporean retail sales growth in Q3
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s PMI slowed noticeably to 51.1 in August from the mid-to-high 51.0 range since May…
- …Vietnam's and Thailand’s PMIs saw the biggest declines from July, but Indonesia is the real worry.
- The deterioration in orders, due to BI’s excessively tight policy stance in Indonesia, is isolated for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesia’s PMI is going from bad to worse, hitting the ASEAN headline
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Steady headline masks continued food disinflation in Indonesia
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Unwinding of discrepancy boost in Q2 hides early signs of a revival in consumption.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Continue to ignore; households are still struggling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s main inflation gauges were unchanged in August: the headline at 2.1% and core at 2.0%…
- …But food inflation remains a big drag and will likely pull the headline below 1.5% at the turn of the year.
- The budget deficit has ballooned this year, but 2025 looks set to see only marginal subsidy reductions.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s Q2 GDP was hit largely by the unwinding of the discrepancy boost, hiding a consumer bump.
- The Q3 PMIs so far point to a further slowdown, and business expectations continue to sour rapidly.
- The pressure on households persists, but the gap between liabilities and asset growth is closing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
