Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Confidence, Italy, December 2024

In one line: Rising IESI still points to downside risks for Q4 GDP.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, December 2024

In one line: Not as bad as PMIs but still in line with our view that GDP will flat-line in Q4 after the Olympics boost in Q3.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

December 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

ECB HAS FURTHER ROOM TO EASE POLICY...

...BUT WE ARE CLOSER TO NEUTRAL THAN MARKETS BELIEVE

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 December 2024 Eurozone Monitor Little holiday cheer in French survey data

  • Political uncertainty weighed on business sentiment in France in December… 
  • ...Politically-driven sentiment moves don’t usually translate into hard data, but growth will still slow. 
  • Services trade figures in the EZ current account point to downside risk to our EZ net trade call in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 December 2024 Eurozone Monitor Rebound in inflation to end in December; road to more cuts open

  • EZ inflation rose less than previously thought in November, to 2.2%—rather than 2.3%—from 2.0%.
  • It will increase further in December, and risks to our call for a 2.5% print are to the upside. 
  • The headline will fall in early 2025, allowing the ECB to cut rates further, less than markets expect though.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, November 2024

In one line: EZ inflation rose less than previously thought in November; another rise this month is likely. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 December 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ's largest economy can't catch a break, but surveys too downbeat

  • The IFO BCI sank in December, pointing to downside risk to our call for German GDP to stagnate in Q4.
  • Investor sentiment, measured by the ZEW, perked up, in line with rising equities. 
  • EZ trade took a hit in October; front-loading ahead of higher tariffs will prevent a Q4 drag from net trade.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW & Trade Balance, Germany & EZ, December/October 2024

In one line: German investor sentiment recovers; EZ goods trade takes a hit in October.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, December 2024

In one line: Sinking to its lowest since May 2020, and the first Covid lockdowns.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 December 2024 Eurozone Monitor December PMIs neither here nor there for ECB policymakers

  • The PMIs in December were still a dovish signal for ECB policymakers… 
  • ...and the ECB President made it clear further easing was on the way in her speech in Lithuania… 
  • ...But she failed in her promise to clarify the Bank’s level of restrictiveness.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, December 2024

In one line: Growth will still slow, despite increase in PMI in December; rising price indices still point to downside risks for inflation.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, December 2024

In one line: Still no sign of a pick up in new orders in manufacturing. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,