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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, April 2025

In one line: Lifted by tariff front-running, still pointing to downside risks to growth. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, April

In one line: Resilient, but labour market prospects remain difficult.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade & construction, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Don’t show Donald Trump the trade charts; Construction down but still defied surveys in Q1

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, April 2025

In one line: As in France, domestic demand is rattled by tariff concerns and PMI shows clear signs of tariff front-running.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, April 2025

In one line: Fastest fall in demand for services since Covid pulls down the headline.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor PMIs sink as domestic demand falters; EZ-US trade surplus jumps

  • Soft April PMIs signal downside risk to our Q2 GDP call, but we still think tariff front-running will help. 
  • Demand for services is retreating, confirming that trade uncertainty is weighing on domestic demand. 
  • Manufacturing is holding the fort for now, with new orders recovering thanks to tariff front-running.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor First post-tariff economic data today likely to come in weak

  • We look for a chunky decline in the April PMIs; falling new orders likely will bear the brunt of the hit. 
  • The euro’s rise is supported by strong portfolio inflows, which look set to continue in Q2.
  • Is euro strength a sign of a more structural shift in FX reserve portfolios? Perhaps, but it’s too soon to say.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor A dovish, but also conditional, pivot from the ECB

  • The ECB is making a dovish shift, conditional on a benign tariff outcome for core inflation.
  • Energy prices and the euro can be cruel mistresses for policymakers looking for signals on inflation.
  • Markets are pricing in the tail-risk for ECB rates; we still think the Bank will be more conservative.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Eurozone, March 2025

In one line: Falling oil prices and a stronger euro are gifts to ECB doves.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, April & Industrial Production, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Tariffs hit investor sentiment hard; industrial production will feel the tariff burn but not until later in the year probably. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB BLS, EZ, Q1 2025

In one line: Banks tighten lending standards for firms & demand for credit eases again even before the shock of “Liberation Day". 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Soft energy inflation the first tariff shock to EZ HICP data

  • Downside risks are building for EZ inflation, due mainly to the accelerated decline in energy prices. 
  • Initial evidence points to a disinflationary tariff shock to EZ core goods inflation, but keep an open mind. 
  • Services inflation will snap back in April, due to Easter effects, but the trend is still downward.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, March 2025

In one line: Soft, but selling prices point to upside risks for the core.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor BLS shows EZ banks hesitating even before tariff hikes

  • Banks tightened lending standards less in Q1 than in Q4, but were already worried about tariffs in March… 
  • ...They expect to tighten lending standards further, while demand for loans among firms fell. 
  • We revise up our Swiss GDP forecasts, on the back of the 90-day pause to tariff hikes.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Stuck between the US and China, the EU's next move is crucial

  • Re-routing could lead to a bigger EZ trade surplus with the US, increasing the risk of higher US tariffs… 
  • ...One of the ways to stem the flow would be for the EU to hike its tariffs on China; it prefers not to. 
  • The EU is at great risk of being pulled into the US-Sino trade war, whether it wants to or not.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor The ECB will cut by 25bp this week but offer little guidance

  • The ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25bp this week, in line with the consensus.
  • Falling oil prices and a strengthening euro point to downside risk to the ECB’s June inflation forecasts.
  • ‘Uncertainty’ will be a key word for Ms. Lagarde this week, but doves have the upper hand, for now.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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