- The EU would target manufactured goods such as machinery or aircraft if it retaliates with higher tariffs.
- In that case, Germany would be among the EZ economies facing higher inflation pressure…
- ...EZ imports likely would decline, lifting GDP growth, but the boost would be marginal overall.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Down like the PMI; recession risks remain.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A plunge, defying leading indicators.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Construction was back recession in Q3; it will remain there in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Goods surplus rebounded in September; net trade was still a drag on growth in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Q3 GDP increase confirmed, despite yet another drag from industry.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ GDP and employment beat forecasts in Q3; we expect both to ease in Q4…
- ...But neither will slow enough to convince the ECB to ramp up the pace of easing.
- EZ industry remains in a rut and will again be a drag on growth in Q4, even if US firms front-load orders.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ food inflation has been edging up in recent months, mostly due to base effects.
- Factory-gate prices suggest it will continue to rise though; the 2022-to-23 shock will persist in the data.
- Higher food inflation will keep the headline elevated, supporting our call for higher ECB rates for longer.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still in recession; Q3 saw the sixth straight quarterly fall in output.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: No signs from these data that GDP will be revised.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German data included, EZ retail story rosier than previously thought
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Shallow recession in Spanish industry won’t last.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: PMI-suggested stagnation unlikely but Trump win bodes ill for already-weak demand for manufactured goods.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Floods mean the risk to our call for Spanish GDP to ease slightly in Q4, to 0.6%, is for a bigger slowdown.
- It would take a significant hit to GDP for Spain to underperform the rest of the big four though.
- French industry rose over Q3, despite the fall in September; it is unlikely to increase again in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent GDP data support investor sentiment but it remains subdued.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Little to suggest the rut in industry is ending, despite increase.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downside surprise, SNB will have to ease more than we previously thought.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone