In one line: First signs of tariff front running by US firms, but also by EU firms.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ trade data show a jump in exports to the US in January, as Mr. Trump fired off tariff threats.
- February and March figures are likely to show further increases in exports across the Atlantic…
- ...But we see some offsetting impact from tariff front-running by EU firms.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Rebounding; likely escaping recession in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Unchanged from initial estimate; will rebound in March.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downward revision to HICP rate signals bigger fall in EZ headline in February.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: An increase thanks to German rebound.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Almost reversing the jump in December.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Growth in compensation-per-employee and the ECB’s wage tracker are easing…
- ...in line with other measures of EZ wage growth, pointing to a sustained slowdown this year.
- We doubt that wage growth will fall to close to 1%, as implied by the ECB’s wage tracker.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Surging, thanks to Germany’s “whatever it takes” moment.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Services production was up sharply in Q4, thanks to continued strength in IT services.
- Surveys remain positive on the outlook for services, and the sector will lead the increase in GDP in Q1.
- Our nowcast model is looking ugly, but we reiterate our call for a pick-up in EZ GDP growth, for now.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Revised up thanks to a solid showing from domestic demand.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not the start to Q1 we’d hoped for. .
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Construction downturn intensifies midway through Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Italian growth fared better than previously thought in Q4, and should now pick up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB is playing it safe; trade uncertainty outweighs upside risks from fiscal stimulus, for now.
- April is wide open, but the ECB will pause its easing unless it perceives US tariffs on a sustained basis.
- The ECB has pushed out the point at which inflation hits 2%; it will soon have to abandon the idea entirely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Consistent with another 0.5% q/q increase in GDP in Q1; price pressures rising.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ inflation expectations ease back; further increases in German unemployment are on the way.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Eurozone headline and core inflation likely undershot the consensus in February.
- Today’s data should be the first clear sign that EZ services inflation is now falling, from a trend of 4%.
- EZ consumers’ spending on goods saw a slow start to 2025, but don’t write off Q1 just yet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
