21 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Two SNB cuts down, two more likely this year

• The SNB cut rates for the second straight meeting, and lowered its inflation forecasts...
• ...We look for another 50bp-worth of rate cuts this year, more than financial markets
• expect.
  The Bank will have to match ECB cuts to prevent a significant appreciation of the CHF and deflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, April

In one line: Q1 wasn’t as good as previously thought, and output will fall back in Q2. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, June 2024

In one line: Brushing off political uncertainty. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Another day, another wage figure points to the ECB on hold in July

• The EZ hourly labour cost growth data were the final wage indicators to be published for Q1… 
• ...The data confirm wage growth picked up in Q1, but mainly due to one-offs in Germany. 
• Wage growth will slow in due course, but a July rate cut is off the table; September is not certain either.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, April

In one line: Imports look to be on the rise again.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, May

In one line: The core will plateau at 2%. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, EZ, April 2024

In one line: Headline points to weakness but the details are more positive

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will consumption growth save the day for Italy's economy?

• Italy’s economy had a decent Q1 and will continue to grow this year...
• ...But a correction in investment remains on the cards and is now likely to come as soon as Q2.
• We forecast GDP growth of 1% in 2024, as in 2023, before 1.8% next year; risks remain to the downside

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone