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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

3 December 2024 Eurozone Monitor Outlook for Italy decent, but downside risks remain

  • Detailed data show a jump in consumers’ spending prevented a fall in Italian GDP in Q3.
  • Consumers will continue to lead the way, and we are revising up our call for Q4 growth.
  • But GDP will still likely rise by just 0.5% this year, half of the government’s latest forecast.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: German Unemployment & ECB CES, Nov/Oct 2024

In one line: German joblessness is still rising; rise in inflation expectations a lagged effect of rebounding inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, October 2024

In one line:  A setback, but seasonals look unduly restrictive. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, November 2024

In one line: HICP headline likely held back by falling food inflation, but the core firmed.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 December 2024 EZ Monitor ECB likely to cut by 25bp this month, and the same in January

  • The scene is set for a hard-fought ECB meeting later this month; we still look for a 25bp cut…
  • …But we’re adding a 25bp cut in January to our forecasts, as ECB doves now have the upper hand.
  • Swiss GDP growth slowed a touch in Q3, but we look for a rebound in Q4; the SNB will cut in December.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

November 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

ECB DOVES STILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND...

  • ...BUT THEY WON’T GET A 50BP CUT IN DECEMBER

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor Slight upside risk to EZ headline and core inflation today

  • We still see EZ HICP inflation at 2.3% in November, but we’re lifting our core forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.9%.
  • Our model, based on the negative skew in ESI data,still points to low recession risk in the EZ.
  • The upturn in real M1 growth is a positive—andmincreasingly contrarian—signal for the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, November 2024

In one line: Stung by political uncertainty; rising unemployment fears look ominous.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor ECB hawk Isabel Schnabel comes out swinging on interest rates

  • Isabel Schnabel is pushing back on a 50bp cut in December, as well as market expectations for 2025.
  • The game of chicken in French politics is weighing on sentiment; will the government fall?
  • Consumer confidence in France and Germany was stung by political uncertainty in November. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor Germany will stay in Schrödinger's recession in Q4 and Q1

  • Inventory accumulation supported German GDP growth in Q2 and Q3; this will reverse in Q4 and Q1. 
  • The trend in disposable income growth still leaves room for an acceleration in consumption growth. 
  • We now see EZ GDP rising by just 0.1% in Q4, reflecting softness in Germany and France.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, November 2024

In one line: Stung by falling activity and new orders; 12-month outlook slightly improved. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 November 2024 EZ Monitor November PMIs won't be enough for a 50bp cut in December

  • Sinking EZ PMIs bring back speculation about a 50bp rate cut in December; we still see 25bp.
  • Domestic political uncertainty is weighing on French activity; Germany is still stuck in the mud.
  • Long-leading indicators still signal a better near term outlook for growth than the PMIs.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, November 2024

In one line: Up in manufacturing, down in services; GDP to flat-line in Q4 after the Olympics boost in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor Framework for understanding the effect of US import tariffs on EZ

  • Germany, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Finland and Portugal are most exposed to US tariffs on Eurozone exports. 
  • An increase in tariffs on all products to 20% would drive a 5-to-10% fall in EZ export revenue. 
  • The devil is in the detail, however, and targeted tariffs could make a much bigger impact on EZ exports.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,