Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Solid, but likely not enough to prevent a growth hit from net exports in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We're lowering our Q3 growth forecast for Germany; we now think the economy fell into recession…
- …But beware, Nowcast models in Germany are less reliable than usual; Q3 GDP is a true wild card.
- France won't cut public spending by €40B next year, but a deficit of 5% of GDP is doable, and then some.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The boost to GDP from rising net exports is reversing, we think.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German manufacturing came roaring back in August, but output fell again in September.
- We estimate industrial production in Germany fell by 1.4% q/q in Q3, a touch worse than in Q2.
- Look past the fall in spending on non-durables for a more optimistic story on the EZ consumer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Comments from BdF Governor François Villeroy de Galhau all but guarantee a 25bp rate cut this month.
- EZ rate expectations and bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term outlook for inflation.
- We’ve lowered our bond yield forecasts, but still see bear-steepening of the yield curve next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Depressed by large orders; upside risks for industrial production in August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Eurozone house price growth rebounded strongly in Q2, and we think further increases are likely.
- We see signs that housing demand is picking up healthily amid falling interest rates.
- We now think house prices will rise by 1.5% in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
