In one line: Upward revision doesn’t change picture of cooling output growth in June.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- ECB President Lagarde struck a somewhat hawkish tone in her Sintra speeches…
- ...But the main message from ECB speakers is that more rate cuts are on the way, data permitting.
- Overall, the Sintra conference left no mark on market-based and consensus rate expectations.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Virtually unchanged, but still on track for around 2% by August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Headline inflation fell marginally in June, but the core was stable; no rate cut in July, but September is on.
- Rising global shipping costs present little upside threat to core goods inflation, for now.
- Services inflation will remain hot in the near term, but surveys point to widening downside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Markets are rallying on the prospect of no RN majority in France, but it’s bit too soon to cheer.
- Eurozone inflation fell further in June, and risks are tilted towards a downside surprise.
- German core inflation is now on a near-straight path towards 2% by the end of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Soft, and further declines are likely over the summer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Headline and core inflation fell in June.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Rising jobless claims likely will lift unemployment further in the near term.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ headline and core inflation still on track for marginal declines in June.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in the EZ likely fell in June, by 0.1pp to 2.5%; all set for a dovish message from Sintra this week.
- Forecast upgrades in Spain and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q2.
- German unemployment hit a new post-Covid high in June and likely will rise a bit further in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A third straight fall led by a drop in manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: M1 growth is rebounding, and the credit cycle is stabilising.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money data point to continued upside for the PMI, which fell in June; will it rebound?
- Credit figures are consistent with rising consumers’ spending and a rebound in investment soon.
- The first June surveys for Italy and Spain suggest downside risk in the former but strength in the latter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: No clear sign of a hit from rising political uncertainty, for now.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Probably a blip in an otherwise uptrend.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
A MODEST CYCLICAL UPTURN HAS BEGUN, AND RATES ARE FALLING
- …WILL POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY THROW A WRENCH IN THE WORKS?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Polls point to a parliament split down the middle in France, but the second-round vote is a wildcard.
- RN’s and NFP’s economic plans will anger bond markets and the EU; Mr. Macron will likely welcome this.
- Survey data so far point to only a modest hit to sentiment in France from rising political uncertainty.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
