In one line: Within a touch of the ECB’s target; September’s rate cut is a go
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Steady; leading indicators point to a renewed increase soon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Olympics pulled services prices higher but headline inflation still dropped
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German inflation falls to ECB target.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Up, like the PMI; inflation expectations remain anchored.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The small 0.2% q/q increase in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade held back growth...
- ...But so did construction investment, where dwellings investment is falling.
- Both trends will be offset by a rebound in inventories and stronger consumers’ spending in H2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Spanish inflation was pulled down sharply in August by falling energy inflation.
- The German headline also took a leg down, to a 41-month low, despite stable services inflation.
- We now think EZ inflation data today will show a 2% print for August; EZ inflation is at the ECB’s target.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: HICP inflation below consensus in Spain and in Germany.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money data suggest the savings rate is no longer rising, pointing to a pick-up in spending…
- ...Lending and credit figures are also turning up, consistent with stronger investment growth.
- For how long will money data remain positive? We see nascent signs they will turn down soon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Fall in real money continues to slow.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Continuing to edge up, despite still-high unemployment fears.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Destatis confirmed the decline in German GDP in Q2, despite still not publishing services data.
- Survey data for Q3 paint an ugly picture for the start of the second half of the year.
- We suspect surveys may be underestimating growth, but we will need to wait and see.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Near- and longer-term consumer inflation expectations are stabilising above 2%...
- ...Firms’ selling price expectations are mixed, but analysts and forecasters see inflation reaching 2%.
- Inflation expectations support our call for further easing by the ECB in coming months.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Activity springs back up again thanks to the Olympics.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Activity springs back up again thanks to the Olympics.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Negotiated wage growth likely eased in Q2 even as compensation per employee probably held steady.
- Hourly labour cost data are the wild card; we doubt they will prevent an ECB cut in September...
- ...But early Q3 indicators, pointing to a rebound in wage growth, cast a shadow over a cut in October.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Imports will rise back soon, we think.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
