Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
- EZ car production remains well below pre-pandemic levels and is still facing headwinds…
- ...Demand is subdued, and new emissions standards come into effect in 2025.
- The sector will stay on the back foot without a push to innovate, most notably to develop cheaper EVs.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation fell below 1% in September for the first time since 2021.
- Inflation averaged 1.1% in Q3, in line with the SNB’s call, but will fall further than the Bank expects in Q4.
- The door is wide open for further rate cuts; the SNB could take its key policy rate close to zero.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone unemployment rate held at 6.4% in September and is likely to remain steady for now.
- The ECB also sees a broadly unchanged unemployment rate over the coming quarters.
- A still-tight labour market will prevent neither a slowdown in wage growth nor more ECB easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Headline inflation in the EZ fell below the ECB’s target in September for the first time since 2021.
- Deeper energy deflation was the main drag, but core inflation also eased a touch.
- We look for the ECB to cut twice more this year, by 25bp in both October and December.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German HICP inflation is now below 2% for the first time since March 2021.
- As of September Italian inflation has been below 2% for a year, though it slid less than we thought.
- EZ inflation still likely fell to below the ECB’s target; today’s data will show it coming in at 1.8%.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The SNB has lowered its inflation forecasts towards our estimates, blaming a stronger CHF.
- It is unhappy with EURCHF and uncomfortable with its new end-of-horizon inflation call.
- We thought another cut would come in December, and we now also think it will trim rates in March.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation has been lower than the SNB expected in Q3; it will cut its inflation forecasts this week…
- ...Thomas Jordan will go out with a bang, cutting rates for the fifth time as SNB Chairman.
- We look for at least one more cut, in December; risks are tilted towards less easing than we expect.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The day of reckoning for Italy's public finances under the new EU fiscal rules has been delayed…
- ...Rome will submit its new MTFS plan 10 days late, at month-end; it needs more spending cuts.
- A sub-4% deficit this year is just wishful thinking; it will remain above 4% until 2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian industry remains in recession in Q3, in line with its German counterpart…
- ...Spanish industry is now joining the recession party, though it is still faring better than elsewhere.
- The outlook for EZ industry remains bleak, especially given signs of still-weak import demand from China.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- July’s German factory orders increase was driven by major orders; jump in June’s core orders was a blip.
- German industrial turnover figures point to output data today coming in well below consensus.
- EZ retail sales are still being compiled without German figures and cannot be relied upon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Net trade drove the increase in Swiss GDP in Q2, while investment held it back.
- Growth will slow in Q3 but pick up again in Q4, such that GDP rises by 1.2% in 2024 the same as in 2023.
- Inflation was a touch higher than we expected in August, but the SNB will still cut twice more this year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The small 0.2% q/q increase in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade held back growth...
- ...But so did construction investment, where dwellings investment is falling.
- Both trends will be offset by a rebound in inventories and stronger consumers’ spending in H2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Spanish inflation was pulled down sharply in August by falling energy inflation.
- The German headline also took a leg down, to a 41-month low, despite stable services inflation.
- We now think EZ inflation data today will show a 2% print for August; EZ inflation is at the ECB’s target.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money data suggest the savings rate is no longer rising, pointing to a pick-up in spending…
- ...Lending and credit figures are also turning up, consistent with stronger investment growth.
- For how long will money data remain positive? We see nascent signs they will turn down soon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Destatis confirmed the decline in German GDP in Q2, despite still not publishing services data.
- Survey data for Q3 paint an ugly picture for the start of the second half of the year.
- We suspect surveys may be underestimating growth, but we will need to wait and see.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Negotiated wage growth likely eased in Q2 even as compensation per employee probably held steady.
- Hourly labour cost data are the wild card; we doubt they will prevent an ECB cut in September...
- ...But early Q3 indicators, pointing to a rebound in wage growth, cast a shadow over a cut in October.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Energy inflation remains on track for a big fall in coming months, but it will rebound into year-end.
- EZ headline inflation will fall to within touching distance of 2% in August, but will snap back in Q4.
- Swiss GDP outpaced the Eurozone average in Q2, as industry fared better than we anticipated.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italy’s new wealth tax on foreign income will help public finances but won’t balance the books…
- ...Spending needs to come down, and significantly, to get Italy away from a near 6% deficit this year.
- As expected, the SNB intervened to stem the rise in the franc last week; more CHF sales will be needed.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss industry likely had another tough quarter in Q2 and services turnover data to May disappoint.
- We doubt GDP fell, however, as implied by the PMI; it has underestimated growth since Q4 2022.
- We have pencilled in zero growth in Switzerland in Q2, after a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- House prices in Spain are currently higher than during the house price bubble in 2005-to-2008…
- ...But the current increase doesn’t look unsustainable and household finances are sound.
- We see little scope for a sharp correction in house prices in the coming quarters in Spain.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone