Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
- Q2 GDP data due next week will likely show a repeat of the Q1 figures in Germany, Italy and Spain…
- ...while GDP growth in France has probably doubled, to 0.4%, as services spending rocketed.
- So, we now think EZ GDP rose by 0.4% on the quarter, after 0.3% in Q1, 0.1pp higher than previously.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Household demand for credit rose, and the fall in firms’ demand decelerated in Q2…
- ...Banks tightened standards at a slower pace than in past quarters, supporting lending growth…
- ...The subsequent pick-up in GDP growth will be gradual, however; not something for the ECB to fear.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Monthly hard data for Italy have been better than expected; our new nowcast points to faster growth…
- ...but business surveys suggest GDP growth is unlikely to budge from Q1’s 0.3%.
- Advance numbers suggest that EZ negotiated wage growth slowed in Q2, despite firmer Indeed data.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The fall in Eurozone house prices eased for the second straight quarter in Q1…
- ...and we see signs that demand is picking up sooner than we thought amid falling interest rates.
- We now think house prices will be broadly flat in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- ECB President Lagarde struck a somewhat hawkish tone in her Sintra speeches…
- ...But the main message from ECB speakers is that more rate cuts are on the way, data permitting.
- Overall, the Sintra conference left no mark on market-based and consensus rate expectations.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Revisions show that Spanish GDP rose by 0.8% on the quarter in Q1, more than previously thought.
- More of the same is likely in coming quarters; survey and hard data are positive, especially in services.
- Spain’s GDP will likely leap by 2.8% this year, in contrast to 0.8% in the Eurozone as a whole.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The SNB cut rates for the second straight meeting, and lowered its inflation forecasts...
- ...We look for another 50bp-worth of rate cuts this year, more than financial markets
- expect.
The Bank will have to match ECB cuts to prevent a significant appreciation of the CHF and deflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ hourly labour cost growth data were the final wage indicators to be published for Q1…
- ...The data confirm wage growth picked up in Q1, but mainly due to one-offs in Germany.
- Wage growth will slow in due course, but a July rate cut is off the table; September is not certain either.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italy’s economy had a decent Q1 and will continue to grow this year...
- ...But a correction in investment remains on the cards and is now likely to come as soon as Q2.
- We forecast GDP growth of 1% in 2024, as in 2023, before 1.8% next year; risks remain to the downside
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ goods trade surplus widened in March, and net trade in goods likely boosted GDP in Q1.
- Advance data from China as well as surveys suggest this boost is disappearing in Q2...
- ...And we think rising imports means net trade is set to weigh on growth for the rest of the year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Were it not for the superbonus, Italian investment likely would be falling off a cliff...
- ...Interest rates faced by firms are among the high- est, credit standards tight and loan demand sinking.
- The lagged hit from rising interest rates on Eurozone investment will fade later this year, but only slowly.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Food inflation has declined steadily since peaking at 15.5% last year but now seems to be stabilising.
- Surveys suggest it will hold steady just below 3% for now, but falling food PPI points to further downside.
- Catalonia’s election will most likely lead to a PSC-led coalition government; Sanchez will be happy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ industry was a drag on GDP growth in Q1, despite German industry coming out of recession.
- February data confirm services led the rebound in EZ GDP in Q1 and will stay in the driving seat for now.
- The boost from construction appears to be reversing already, and the fall in the PMI in April bodes ill.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German factory orders fell again in March, as capital and intermediate goods demand faltered...
- ...Turnover data suggest production figures will be better than expected today, but still down.
- Retail sales confirm the EZ consumer was still show- ing little interest in goods in Q1; will this change?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation rose in April on the back of a broad- based increase in prices...
- ...It should fall again to near 1% in coming months, though, so the SNB can continue its cutting cycle.
- We continue to look for more rate cuts this year than the consensus; 75bp-worth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The rise in the EZ composite PMI suggests we should expect a pick up in GDP growth in Q2.
- Higher selling price expectations won’t prevent an ECB cut in June; they still point to lower inflation.
- The SNB’s tweak to minimum reserve requirements is not as big a deal as markets think.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Spain was again the star performer in Q1; we look for GDP to have risen by 0.6% quarter-to-quarter.
- Italy was close behind, faring better than France and Germany, as construction investment rose again.
- Growth should rise in Spain and Italy later this year, but risks are to the downside, especially in Italy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone