EZ Datanote: Trade & construction, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Don’t show Donald Trump the trade charts; Construction down but still defied surveys in Q1

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line: Trade wars are not good for firm morale.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, April 2025

In one line: As in France, domestic demand is rattled by tariff concerns and PMI shows clear signs of tariff front-running.

25 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Near-real-time data paint an encouraging picture for early Q2

• Most near-real-time consumers’ spending indicators suggest it is holding up well in April. 
• The trade war also hasn’t hit job postings, while Google searches for ‘unemployment’ are down. 
• Leading indicators on production, meanwhile, reflect greater activity, boosted by tariff front-running.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, April 2025

In one line: Fastest fall in demand for services since Covid pulls down the headline.

24 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor PMIs sink as domestic demand falters; EZ-US trade surplus jumps

• Soft April PMIs signal downside risk to our Q2 GDP call, but we still think tariff front-running will help. 
• Demand for services is retreating, confirming that trade uncertainty is weighing on domestic demand. 
• Manufacturing is holding the fort for now, with new orders recovering thanks to tariff front-running.

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line: EZ consumers didn’t like Trump’s tariff announcements.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, April & Industrial Production, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Tariffs hit investor sentiment hard; industrial production will feel the tariff burn but not until later in the year probably. 

EZ Datanote: ECB BLS, EZ, Q1 2025

In one line: Banks tighten lending standards for firms & demand for credit eases again even before the shock of “Liberation Day". 

16 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor BLS shows EZ banks hesitating even before tariff hikes

• Banks tightened lending standards less in Q1 than in Q4, but were already worried about tariffs in March… 
• ...They expect to tighten lending standards further, while demand for loans among firms fell. 
• We revise up our Swiss GDP forecasts, on the back of the 90-day pause to tariff hikes.

15 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Stuck between the US and China, the EU's next move is crucial

• Re-routing could lead to a bigger EZ trade surplus with the US, increasing the risk of higher US tariffs… 
• ...One of the ways to stem the flow would be for the EU to hike its tariffs on China; it prefers not to. 
• The EU is at great risk of being pulled into the US-Sino trade war, whether it wants to or not.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, February 2025

In one line: Industry still supported Italian GDP in Q1.

9 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Changing our SNB call, but we still don't expect negative rates

• Slower growth, coupled with a stronger CHF and lower oil prices, will keep Swiss inflation down. 
• The SNB is likely to cut once more; we now expect the easing cycle to end in June. 
• EZ house prices rose 4.2% last year and will increase again this year, as lower interest rates fuel demand.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Rebounding as expected; will global trade war hurt consumers? 

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line:  Plunging, reflecting market rout. 

EZ Datanote: Construction PMIs, Eurozone, March 2025

In one line:  Up despite being held back by German weakness. 

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, February 2025

In one line: Solid but unlikely to last.

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, February 2025

In one line:  A new record low; another data point for ECB hawks. 

EZ Datanote: PMI, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Our PM composite PMI points to another solid increase in GDP in Q1.