EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, February 2024

In one line:  Net trade is still likely to have been a drag one growth in Q1. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 April 2024 Eurozone Monitor Which HICP components lead Eurozone wage growth?

• EZ compensation-per-employee growth slowed in Q1, but what about negotiated wages?
• The HICP components most correlated with wage growth point to a significant slowdown in H1 2024.
• The Q1 bank lending survey is not the slam dunk for ECB doves that many seem to believe.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, April 2024

In one line:  Pointing to further gains in the PMI.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, February 2024

In one line: A German-led plunge.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, February 2024

In one line: Industry is a key reason Spain outperformed in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, March 2024

In one line: A downside surprise, as in the EZ.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 April 2024 Eurozone Monitor Swiss CPI implies more SNB cuts; EZ house prices fell in Q4

• The fall in Swiss inflation in March solidifies our view that more SNB rate cuts are on the way this year.
• EZ house prices fell in Q4 and were down by 1.1% in 2023 overall; we look for another 1% drop this year.
• The PMI adds to the evidence that Spain’s economic outperformance continued in Q1; we concur.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, February 2024

In one line: Staying where it's been for most of the past year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMI, EZ, March 2024

In one line: Still touch and go for the recovery in EZ industry.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 April 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation likely fell to just over 2% in March; what now, ECB?

• The drop in German inflation cements the outlook for a below-consensus EZ inflation report today.
• Why wouldn’t the ECB cut this month if inflation hit 2.2% in March? We can’t see why not either.
• Weakness in France and Germany is still holding back momentum in EZ manufacturing.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone