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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q2 2025

In one line: Germany fared worse than initially expected in Q2.  

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Resilient to the latest rise in US tariffs, despite hit to foreign orders. 

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Only little signs of a hit from higher US tariffs.  

22 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ activity expanded in mid-Q3, despite higher US tariffs

  • The PMIs suggest higher US tariffs are weighing on export orders, as we expected… 
  • ...But the EZ economy is still resilient; the composite PMI edged up to a 15-month high in August. 
  • Price pressures rose again, implying the risk to our call for an ECB rate cut in September is for no cut.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September. 

21 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Higher EZ inflation coming, but we still see a September rate cut

  • Stable inflation in July was confirmed; the core held steady but food and energy inflation rose. 
  • Higher inflation is on the cards, as energy deflation continues to unwind and food inflation climbs. 
  • For now, though, we think a fall in core inflation will convince the ECB to push through another rate cut.

20 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Foreigners were favouring EZ assets even before higher US tariffs

  • The EZ current account surplus widened in June, despite a sharp drop in the goods trade balance. 
  • Services trade was a boost to GDP in Q2, unlike goods trade. 
  • Foreign investors are funnelling into EZ assets, but this isn’t a new Trump-era trend.

19 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ goods trade surplus nears zero as US exports continue to slide

  • The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures. 
  • Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June. 
  • We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.

EZ Datanote: Trade, EZ, June 2025

In one line: Net trade in goods was a drag on GDP in Q2. 

15 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP slowed in Q2 and will fall outright in Q3, marginally

  • The slowdown in EZ GDP growth in Q2 was confirmed, mainly due to weakness in industry. 
  • Industry will likely be a bigger drag on GDP in Q3, and the strength in construction will not continue.
  • The labour market continues to support GDP growth; surveys suggest employment will stay solid.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Down, in line with the fall in the sentix. 

14 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss GDP preview: growth slows sharply in Q2; the outlook is bleak

  • Swiss GDP growth likely slowed sharply in Q2 from the 0.8% q/q read in Q1 led by tariff front-running.
  • Hard data and surveys imply a print of around 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
  • Switzerland will enter recession in H2, even if “gold will not be tariffed!”.

13 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Investors give the EU-US trade deal a thumbs down

  • The ZEW confirms the message from the Sentix: investors don’t like the EU-US trade deal. 
  • Investor sentiment indices still point to a rise in the PMI in the coming months, but we doubt it. 
  • The EZ economy will struggle now that US tariffs have risen further.
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independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,