Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
- EZ consumer confidence dipped at year-end, but consumers’ spending should hold up anyway.
- Risks are balanced; inflation in items bought regularly is rising, but the saving rate remains high.
- EZ current account figures show services exports started Q4 on a weak footing, the same as goods.
ECB TO HOLD THE LINE AS BOE AND FED CUT FURTHER...
- …ITS NEXT MOVE WILL LIKELY BE A HIKE, IN 2027
In one line: Little holiday cheer for EZ households at year-end.
In one line: Consistent with a pick up in GDP growth in Q4.
In one line: Little cheer for German consumers at turn of the year.
In one line: Still no hint to future rate path.
In one line: On hold, chances of further easing still slim to none.
- Germany’s IFO BCI fell again in December and points to downside risks to our Q4 call.
- France’s INSEE & Italy’s ISTAT surveys, meanwhile, rose implying a pick up in activity at year-end.
- The Eurozone’s construction sector is likely to have come out of recession in Q4.
In one line: EZ construction likely escaped recession in Q4.
In one line: Strong but can we trust it?
In one line: Revised down, the ECB will still stand pat tomorrow.
- The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.00% for the third straight meeting yesterday, as widely expected.
- Its new forecasts, showing growth at potential and inflation at target, suggest no further easing.
- The next rate move will likely be up, in 2027; we see two 25bp hikes, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%.
In one line: Down, mirroring fall in PMI.
In one line: Down but still one for the ECB hawks.
- EZ inflation is now thought to have held steady in November, rather than edged up.
- It has still averaged above the ECB’s forecast so far in Q4; the Bank will stand pat today.
- Our forecasts show EZ inflation rising in December before falling to a trough of 1.7% in Q1.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4.
In one line: Q4 will still be better than Q3.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4.
- The EZ composite PMI slid to a three-month low but still points to GDP rising more in Q4 than Q3.
- The detail indicates stronger employment growth and so a still-tight labour market…
- ...As well as rising input costs and greater inflation pressures in 2026.
- Our spot forecasts for EZ GDP have outperformed the consensus and the ECB so far this year…
- …We have improved our EZ inflation forecasts by incorporating our new energy model.
- We misjudged the dovishness of the new SNB Chairman, affecting our forecasting track record.
