EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, June 2024

In one line: Brushing off political uncertainty. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Another day, another wage figure points to the ECB on hold in July

• The EZ hourly labour cost growth data were the final wage indicators to be published for Q1… 
• ...The data confirm wage growth picked up in Q1, but mainly due to one-offs in Germany. 
• Wage growth will slow in due course, but a July rate cut is off the table; September is not certain either.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, April

In one line: Imports look to be on the rise again.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, May

In one line: The core will plateau at 2%. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, EZ, April 2024

In one line: Headline points to weakness but the details are more positive

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will consumption growth save the day for Italy's economy?

• Italy’s economy had a decent Q1 and will continue to grow this year...
• ...But a correction in investment remains on the cards and is now likely to come as soon as Q2.
• We forecast GDP growth of 1% in 2024, as in 2023, before 1.8% next year; risks remain to the downside

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, May 2024

In one line:  Another increase, more is coming

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, May 2024

In one line: Was the rise in French private sector activity short-lived?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, May 2024

In one line: Services leads the way while industry downturn is easing. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, March

In one line: Goods trade supported GDP last quarter

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Net trade will be a drag on EZ GDP growth in coming quarters

• The EZ goods trade surplus widened in March, and net trade in goods likely boosted GDP in Q1.
• Advance data from China as well as surveys suggest this boost is disappearing in Q2...
• ...And we think rising imports means net trade is set to weigh on growth for the rest of the year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Where will investment fare worst in the EZ big four this year?

• Were it not for the superbonus, Italian investment likely would be falling off a cliff...
• ...Interest rates faced by firms are among the high- est, credit standards tight and loan demand sinking.
• The lagged hit from rising interest rates on Eurozone investment will fade later this year, but only slowly.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, EZ, March 2024

In one line: Output still fell over Q1 as a whole.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone