In one line: Stellar again; inflation increase driven by energy base effects
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for EZ GDP growth at 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, slightly above the consensus, 0.2%.
- Today’s early-October inflation data in Germany and Spain will point to a rebound in the EZ HICP.
- An upward revision to EZ unemployment is the main dovish risk to rates this week.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Donald Trump has threatened a 10% tariff on goods imported to the US, if he becomes president.
- Our analysis suggests the hit to EZ GDP from a blanket 10% tariff would be limited…
- ...The GDP hit would be smaller if the EU retaliates but bigger if a US-China trade war escalates.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Supporting our view Germany will avoid recession this year but pointing to downside risks in Italy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Barely budging fuelling market expectations for faster ECB rate cuts.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Down, in line with our call that French GDP will slow again in Q4 after an Olympics boost in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ PMI barely budged in October and is consistent with slower GDP growth in Q4…
- ...But we think growth will remain solid despite agreeing with the PMI about a slowdown in France.
- Markets are trying to pull the ECB towards a 50bp rate cut in December; we still see 25bp.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italy’s MTFS plan suggests it is doing everything right, complying with new EU rules in quick order…
- ...This is because Rome is assuming potential growth of almost 1%, a dream scenario for Italy…
- ...What’s more, this year’s budget will be bigger than Rome thinks, making 2025 more difficult.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Construction went back into recession in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ trade balance pulled lower by rising imports, again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ car production remains well below pre-pandemic levels and is still facing headwinds…
- ...Demand is subdued, and new emissions standards come into effect in 2025.
- The sector will stay on the back foot without a push to innovate, most notably to develop cheaper EVs.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Inflation will likely rise back up in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still on track for a sixth straight quarterly fall in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Probably underestimating the true strength in sales.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Chinese stimulus boosts investor sentiment.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Spanish industry entered recession in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
