Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist) Gabriella Dickens Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist) Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
LITTLE IN THE DATA TO SUPPORT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT...
- The BTP-Bund spread has continued to fall in recent months, in line with our call.
- We look for it to slide to 20bp by mid-2026, its average in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
- A higher Bund yield will still mean above-3% Italian yields though, keeping Rome’s debt costs high.
In one line: Stabilising, but downside risks loom.
In one line: Stung by falling consumption and another hit from falling net trade.
- German Q3 growth was hit by falling consumption, but the spending details are better than the headline.
- Investment in Germany is stabilising, but we’re yet to see evidence of the much hoped-for recovery.
- Jump in government spending was mainly due to welfare spending, but borrowing is rising fast.
- We think this week’s inflation data for November will continue to signal Eurozone inflation above 2% in Q4.
- The acceleration in money supply growth is easing, but it still indicates decent GDP growth.
- Early Q4 spending data are mixed: we see strength in France and Spain, softness in Germany.
In one line: Still pointing to upside risks to our forecast for Q4.
In one line: Private sector activity growth slows but Q4 still set to be better than Q3.
In one line: Solid headlines in services; weakness coming in industrial output.
- The tiny fall in the EZ composite PMI in November still leaves it pointing to stronger GDP growth in Q4.
- The PMIs also indicate rising price pressures, signalling little need for another ECB cut this year.
- EZ negotiated wage growth dropped in Q3, but this is not the start of a new trend.
In one line: Stable in November; spending should pick up regardless.
In one line: Construction had a neutral impact on EZ GDP in Q3.
- The EZ current account surplus rose marginally in September; a strong euro will bring it down in 2026.
- Foreign investors have moved away from EZ debt and piled into EZ equities over the past year.
- EZ construction output was flat in Q3, after declining in the previous quarter; Q4 will likely be a little better.
In one line: Inflation to stay above 2% in Q4.
- EZ inflation edged down in October, but we still see a near-term rebound to 2.2%, before a fall in January.
- Refining margins are rising, boosting energy inflation, but the trend is still dovish overall.
- Core inflation is set for a small further rise in the near term, before a steady decline over H1 2026.
- Germany’s government will use fiscal policy to lower prices for consumers and firms next year.
- A subsidy to lower electricity prices for energy- intensive industry should lift output in early 2026.
- Germany is set to spend 0.3-to-0.4% of GDP on lower energy prices for consumers and firms.
- Swiss GDP fell in Q3, by 0.5% on the quarter, more than reversing the 0.2% increase in Q2.
- We no longer forecast a recession in H2, as US trade tariffs are now being lowered to 15% from 39%.
- Risks are to the downside, but we still doubt that the SNB will ease policy in December.
In one line: Worse than we thought; upside risks loom for Q4.
In one line: Drag from net trade in goods disappeared in Q3, as US exports jumped, supporting the confirmed picked up in GDP growth.
