In one line: Ugly; recession in industry will continue this quarter.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Output still rose in Q4, unlike in Germany and France.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A downward revision to Q4 GDP growth?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany’s economy is in a cyclical rut; it remains to be seen whether its problems are more structural.
- Nominal GDP in Germany has been soaring, but higher prices have compressed growth in real terms.
- Many politicians in Germany want to tighten fiscal policy, but will the economy allow it?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ retail ends the year on a low note.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sentiment on the up at the turn of the year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Boosted by major orders in aircraft; core orders were weak.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP in Spain grew by 2.5% last year, more than in any of the other major EZ economies.
- This year, quarter-to-quarter growth will remain solid, such that GDP rises by 2%.
- German industrial orders soared in December but they were skewed by major orders mainly in aircraft.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB’s policy rate is 100-to-150bp too tight; it will align with two-year yields by the end of the year.
- We see near-term downside risk to Bund yields but then look for bear-steepening in H2.
- Our forecasts for the bond markets assume a soft landing in the economy; what if we’re wrong?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: : Still pointing to a further increase in the PMI.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian GDP rose more than we expected in Q4, forcing us to raise our forecasts for this year...
- ...Consumption will drive up GDP, which we now think will rise by 0.8% this year, the same as in 2023.
- A correction in investment is coming; a key downside risk is that it is bigger and quicker than we expect.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not enough for a rate cut in March; but April is still on.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Recession in industry appears to have found a floor.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Lingering votes to hike Bank Rate distract from most members’ endorsement of rate cuts this year...
- ...Two-year-ahead inflation is forecast nearer 2% under market rates than constant rates; upside skew has gone.
- We still expect the first 25bp cut to come in May, but the risks remain tilted towards a later commencement.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still consistent with a fall in the ECB’s 2024 inflation forecasts in March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ inflation fell in January, but less than we thought.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
