In one line: Held back by deteriorating views on Germany.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Revised down; held back by consumption and investment.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Industry is unlikely to recover until the external picture improves.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ GDP rose less than expected in Q2, mainly due to downward revisions to French and Irish GDP.
- Consumption and investment held back growth, while net trade did all the heavy lifting.
- Compensation-per-employee growth eased, in line with other measures of wage growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- July’s German factory orders increase was driven by major orders; jump in June’s core orders was a blip.
- German industrial turnover figures point to output data today coming in well below consensus.
- EZ retail sales are still being compiled without German figures and cannot be relied upon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Likely too downbeat; still no German data.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- France’s budget deficit won’t shrink much this year, but tough negotiations on the 2025 budget loom.
- September is a key month for budget negotiations; a hung parliament points to high risk of a stalemate.
- The composite PMIs for Spain and Italy, despite rising in August, point to slower GDP growth in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: GDP growth is unlikely to slow in Q3, as the PMI suggests.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Net trade drove the increase in Swiss GDP in Q2, while investment held it back.
- Growth will slow in Q3 but pick up again in Q4, such that GDP rises by 1.2% in 2024 the same as in 2023.
- Inflation was a touch higher than we expected in August, but the SNB will still cut twice more this year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stubborn domestic inflation prevents bigger decline.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Consistent with continued recession in industry, despite upward revision.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Rising services sentiment boosts the headline aggregate index.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Within a touch of the ECB’s target; September’s rate cut is a go
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Steady; leading indicators point to a renewed increase soon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Olympics pulled services prices higher but headline inflation still dropped
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone