Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- French and Spanish inflation data lend support to ECB doves pushing for an October cut...
- ...But beware of whiplash in market pricing, if the German and Italian data don’t play ball.
- French consumer spending isn’t going anywhere in Q2; German jobless claims are still rising.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- French households celebrate falling inflation, but confidence-sapping tax hikes loom on the horizon.
- France’s deficit will hit 6% of GDP soon without corrective action; markets won’t let that slide.
- Spending cuts alone won’t reduce the deficit in France, tax hikes will be needed too.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ PMIs plunged in September, as the boost from the Summer Olympics ended.
- Our EZ Nowcast for Q3 GDP looks ugly, but we think it is misleadingly pessimistic at this point.
- The ECB will consider an October rate cut if non-energy goods inflation stays subdued in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- INSEE survey data show further signs of stabilisation in September but remain soft overall.
- The Summer Olympics boosted Q3 GDP growth in France, but a payback looms in Q4.
- We look for a big fall in the EZ PMIs today as the Olympics boost to French services reaches an end.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Fed’s 50bp rate cut increases the chance of an ECB rate cut in October, but only marginally…
- …The bar remains high for a third ECB cut next month; September core goods inflation is key.
- The EZ current account surplus has rebounded, but it will roll over in due course.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Falling energy inflation will pull headline HICP below 2% in September; we look for 1.8% year-over-year.
- Obsessing about services inflation is ‘so yesterday’; all eyes on non-energy goods in September and Q4.
- An October rate cut is back in play if core goods inflation fails to rebound in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Mr. Draghi's report on European competitiveness could help Italy and France in their EDP negotiations.
- We agree with Mr. Draghi's broad conclusions, but he is too upbeat on productivity and inflation.
- EZ hourly labour cost growth remained high in Q2, but stagnant profits point to lower inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- One more ECB rate cut this year is a good baseline, but the probability of two has increased.
- Surveys point to downside risks for core inflation in France, but we still look for a rebound in Q4.
- The misery in EZ manufacturing continued at the start of Q3, despite a boost from Ireland.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB cut by 25bp as expected; an October cut is now a tall order, but a December cut is back on.
- The rise in the ECB’s core inflation forecast will prevent the Bank from being mugged by reality in Q4.
- Early signs show that the ECB is noticing the sustained weakness in EZ domestic demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany’s economy is now in recession, judging by the trend in investment and survey data…
- …But we think rising consumers’ spending will just about keep the economy’s head above water in Q3.
- We’re lowering our German GDP growth forecasts for Q3, Q4 and Q1 by a cumulative 0.3pp.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, as widely expected, but what happens in Q4?
- We see a higher chance than markets of an October cut, and a lower probability of December easing.
- Will the ECB lift its Q4 core inflation forecasts this week? We think so, but how far?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ GDP rose less than expected in Q2, mainly due to downward revisions to French and Irish GDP.
- Consumption and investment held back growth, while net trade did all the heavy lifting.
- Compensation-per-employee growth eased, in line with other measures of wage growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- France’s budget deficit won’t shrink much this year, but tough negotiations on the 2025 budget loom.
- September is a key month for budget negotiations; a hung parliament points to high risk of a stalemate.
- The composite PMIs for Spain and Italy, despite rising in August, point to slower GDP growth in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation fell to its lowest since July 2021 in August, marginally above the ECB’s target...
- ...The Bank will find it hard to justify its current restrictive stance, especially with wage growth easing.
- We think a September rate cut is more likely than not and keep our October cut in too, for now.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The downturn in the EZ composite PMI was halted by the Olympics in France; only temporarily we think.
- The PMIs point to firming growth in services, while manufacturing is still stuck in recession.
- A big drop in Q2 wage growth seals the deal for a September cut, and helps our call for an October cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Construction output jumped in June but still fell over the second quarter as a whole…
- ...This is consistent with a drop in construction capex, which accounts for nearly half of investment in GDP.
- The outlook for the sector is bleak; it will remain a drag on growth for the rest of this year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation data suggest market pricing for 70bp-worth of easing this year is much too ambitious.
- The ECB will cut by 25bp in September; we still see a second cut in October, but this is a very close call.
- Inflation in food, core goods and energy are all set to firm in Q4, and services inflation will fall only slightly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone’s trade surplus rebounded in June, but net trade in goods likely dragged on growth in Q2.
- We’re expecting this net trade drag on growth to continue for up to 12 months.
- The trend in import growth, however, remains much weaker than implied by our consumption forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The 0.3% increase in Eurozone GDP in Q2 was confirmed, despite industry remaining in recession.
- The service sector again drove growth; we do not trust the reported fall in service production in May.
- Productivity is not sliding as fast as in recent quarters; the ECB will welcome this development.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
