Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- Front-loaded fiscal stimulus can add 0.5pp to German growth this year, in the best-case scenario.
- Defence spending is poised to accelerate after a slow start to the year, but the multiplier is low.
- Front-loading of infrastructure spending via €100B in funding for local government is a key upside risk.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A temporary reprieve in the US–China trade war is worth far less than financial markets are assuming.
- Early signs suggest Mr. Trump will go hard on the EU, keeping uncertainty for the EZ economy elevated.
- Isabel Schnabel is coming out swinging for ECB hawks, but will her argument carry the day?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU’s announcement of retaliation against US tariffs is an attempt to get Washington to the table.
- Brussels’ WTO case against the US indicates that it won’t accept 10% as a floor for tariffs.
- EU purchases of energy, agricultural products and defence goods are the clearest route to a deal.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation fell to a lower-than-expected zero in April, with a knock-on effect on our forecasts…
- ...We now see deflation until mid-2026; the SNB will cut its policy rate below zero in June in response.
- We look for a 50bp rate cut at the next meeting, taking the key policy rate to -0.25%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone economy was stronger in the first quarter than both we and the ECB expected.
- The pick-up in growth will prove short-lived, as trade uncertainty bites down on investment.
- Country data point to EZ inflation at 2.1% in April; we still see a chunky upside surprise in the core.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Spanish growth slowed in Q1 but still comfortably outperformed growth in the rest of the big four.
- The SNB is easing policy without cutting rates, signalling a desire to steer clear of negative rates.
- Money and credit data remain positive on outlook for the EZ economy but tariffs still threaten.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Market expectations for the ECB’s deposit rate to stay below 2.0% next year are a sitting duck.
- Bunds are fairly valued at 2.5%; fiscal policy poses upside risk, but trade wars pull in the other direction.
- EURUSD is overshooting our models; EZ equities are set to struggle for a while longer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Our forecasts for Q1 GDP and the April HICP imply upside risk for ECB rate expectations this week.
- Robust national business surveys point to upside risk to our Q2 forecasts for GDP in Germany and France.
- Tariff front-running seems to be just what the doctor ordered for manufacturing in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a chunky decline in the April PMIs; falling new orders likely will bear the brunt of the hit.
- The euro’s rise is supported by strong portfolio inflows, which look set to continue in Q2.
- Is euro strength a sign of a more structural shift in FX reserve portfolios? Perhaps, but it’s too soon to say.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB is making a dovish shift, conditional on a benign tariff outcome for core inflation.
- Energy prices and the euro can be cruel mistresses for policymakers looking for signals on inflation.
- Markets are pricing in the tail-risk for ECB rates; we still think the Bank will be more conservative.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Downside risks are building for EZ inflation, due mainly to the accelerated decline in energy prices.
- Initial evidence points to a disinflationary tariff shock to EZ core goods inflation, but keep an open mind.
- Services inflation will snap back in April, due to Easter effects, but the trend is still downward.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25bp this week, in line with the consensus.
- Falling oil prices and a strengthening euro point to downside risk to the ECB’s June inflation forecasts.
- ‘Uncertainty’ will be a key word for Ms. Lagarde this week, but doves have the upper hand, for now.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The 90-day delay to US tariffs, excluding China, is a stay of execution only; uncertainty remains high.
- Italian Prime Minister Meloni is the first EU leader to announce support to exporters hit by US tariff hikes.
- Italian public debt issuance will remain high this year, keeping BTP yields elevated.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A fall in investment will be the main driver of the incoming recession in the Eurozone.
- Germany will bear the brunt of the slowdown, with a 0.6% fall in GDP across Q2 and Q3.
- Fiscal stimulus and trade diversion are the main upside risks to growth relative to our new baseline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ is now likely entering a technical recession; the ECB will cut its deposit rate to 2.00% by June.
- Markets are pricing-in too dovish an outcome for the ECB; the bank will struggle to push rates below 2%.
- The economy is facing the trade shock in decent shape and fiscal stimulus still pose upside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Look through the noise to see a relatively modest US tariff package for the EU, all things considered.
- An ECB rate cut later this month is now fully priced in, but we still think the Bank will hold fire.
- The SNB can hold off from further rate cuts for now, despite the likely hit to growth from the US tariff hike.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The euro area economy comes into ‘Liberation Day’ in a relatively good position.
- A 25% blanket tariff on EZ exports to the US would bring down our 2025 growth forecast by 0.4pp.
- EU retaliation could raise EZ core goods inflation, but it depends on the size and scope of import tariffs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We still think the data support the idea of an ECB pause in April, but what will happen on tariffs today?
- EZ core inflation fell nicely in March, but it will snap back in April as Easter effects reverse.
- Services activity in Switzerland is coming off the boil at the start of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think EZ headline and core inflation fell by 0.1pp in March, to 2.2% and 2.5% respectively.
- Easter effects depressed German services inflation in March, but core goods inflation in Italy jumped.
- German retail sales were stronger at the start of 2025 than we expected; upside risk to Q1 growth?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- French and Spanish inflation came in weaker than expected in March, and German joblessness rose...
- ...But consumer inflation expectations and selling price expectations are up and money supply firmed.
- The April decision by the ECB is now finely poised; a dovish March HICP could swing it for the doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
