Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- The Eurostoxx 50 is currently priced for negative medium-term returns, based on book value.
- Margins are a wild card for EZ equities, but unless they remain near record highs, prices will fall further.
- We look for a further 5-to-10% decline in EZ equities as margins compress and earnings growth slows.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The link between the ECB’s policy rate and the Taylor Rule, which broke after the GFC, is reasserting itself.
- A Taylor Rule with inflation expectations suggests the ECB is behind the curve on easing.
- The model also indicates that the policy rate won’t fall as much as the consensus expects.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German manufacturing output rebounded modestly in June, but likely fell back in July.
- Hard data are now consistent with the reported GDP decline in Q2, but what happened to consumption?
- We’re nudging down our Q3 GDP growth forecast in Germany by 0.1pp to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will provide liquidity via LTROs before resorting to an emergency rate cut.
- We now think the ECB will cut by 25bp in September and October, but not in December.
- Markets now agree with our SNB call, so we’re sticking to our guns for two more cuts this year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation held steady in July, but this means it was still in line with the SNB’s target.
- The headline inflation rate will creep lower in the coming months, allowing for further easing.
- EZ industry ended Q2 on a good note, enough to escape recession last quarter and boost GDP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Eurozone unemployment rose slightly in June, but the underlying trend is still flat.
- Surveys point to downside risks to employment growth and upside risks to unemployment in H2…
- …Yet our own GDP growth forecasts point to a better near-term outlook.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation was slightly hotter than we expected in July but is still on track for a sharp fall in August.
- Disinflation in core goods and food will reverse soon, creating a challenge for the ECB in Q4.
- We still see an ECB rate cut in September, but no longer in December; we now have two cuts in H1-25.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany was a laggard in Q2, again; GDP jumped in Spain, and rose solidly in Italy and France.
- We think the Q2 GDP numbers have increased the probability of a second ECB rate cut in September.
- German HICP inflation was hot, but Spain’s was soft; we still see EZ inflation stable at 2.5% in July.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB’s CES suggests young people’s inflation expectations have increased since the pandemic…
- …This, in turn, implies that tail-risks for inflation have shifted to the upside, and above 2%.
- Relative inflation expectations for women and low-income workers seem correlated with wage growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Brace for the Q2 GDP data and July inflation figures, after a busy week for surveys last week.
- EZ headline inflation likely was unchanged in July, but we think core inflation dipped further.
- Italy’s first survey data for July were not as downbeat as those for France and Germany.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Plunging French and German business confidence raises the probability of a rate cut in September…
- …but we’re sceptical whether these data should be trusted as reliable leading indicators for Q3 GDP.
- Our index of the credit impulse, M1 growth and credit standards points to stronger EZ GDP growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: PMI lower by weakness in manufacturing; services and consumer sentiment are looking much better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- The EZ composite PMI is on the verge of falling below 50; will it matter for Q3 growth? Probably not.
- Manufacturing remains the weak spot, according to the PMIs, while services are still relatively robust.
- The EZ output price PMI in services fell further in July; inflation will follow, eventually.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We’re flying half-blind on Q2 GDP data in Germany, but we’re lifting our forecasts slightly, all the same.
- Construction investment was a drag on growth in Q2, but consumers’ spending likely rebounded.
- Our forecasts for Germany for the rest of 2024 see domestic demand now rebounding.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- This week sees a raft of business surveys for July; we expect increases across the board.
- Political uncertainty in France is a threat, but the unclear outcome of the elections removes tail risks...
- ...German industrial surveys were too weak in June, given early signs from hard data; they will rebound.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The September meeting is “wide open” according to Ms. Lagarde; markets see it differently.
- Easing inflation, softening wages and falling profit margins should take a September cut over the line…
- …But we are now less certain on a cut than we were before; all eyes on ECB “sources” in coming days.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in the Eurozone was little moved in June; it will probably hold steady in July.
- Upside risks from services and energy now loom for EZ inflation but we think September’s rate cut is safe.
- Our forecasts point to a Q4 rebound in core inflation; will the ECB look through this and cut in December?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will likely open the door to further easing this week, teeing up a second rate cut, in September.
- Market expectations are converging on three cuts between now and March; the ECB is fine with this.
- One week ahead of the EZ Q2 GDP data, Nowcast models are subdued; we don’t buy them.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German services inflation, ex-rents, is still sizzling, at just under 5%, but it will fall soon.
- Core inflation in Germany will drop further between now and the end of the year, to just over 2.5%.
- The Summer Olympics will likely lift French core inflation by 0.1pp in July, and by 0.3pp in August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ private-sector balance sheets are healthy; this dulls the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
- The private sector’s interest-rate-sensitivity has almost halved compared to before the GFC.
- Strong private balance sheets, fiscal activism and labour-hoarding will keep ECB policy rates elevated.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
