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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Chartbook Daily Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

31 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Solid Q2 GDP headline in the EZ, but the details are on the soft side

  • Germany was a laggard in Q2, again; GDP jumped in Spain, and rose solidly in Italy and France. 
  • We think the Q2 GDP numbers have increased the probability of a second ECB rate cut in September. 
  • German HICP inflation was hot, but Spain’s was soft; we still see EZ inflation stable at 2.5% in July.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Not all inflation expectations are made alike; which are best?

  • The ECB’s CES suggests young people’s inflation expectations have increased since the pandemic… 
  • …This, in turn, implies that tail-risks for inflation have shifted to the upside, and above 2%. 
  • Relative inflation expectations for women and low-income workers seem correlated with wage growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

July 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

EZ LEADING INDICATORS ARE THROWING OFF MIXED SIGNALS

  • ...WHICH ONES SHOULD YOU TRUST?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Which leading indicators in the Eurozone should we trust?

  • Plunging French and German business confidence raises the probability of a rate cut in September… 
  • …but we’re sceptical whether these data should be trusted as reliable leading indicators for Q3 GDP. 
  • Our index of the credit impulse, M1 growth and credit standards points to stronger EZ GDP growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor How worried should you be about the falling PMIs? Not very, yet

  • The EZ composite PMI is on the verge of falling below 50; will it matter for Q3 growth? Probably not.
  • Manufacturing remains the weak spot, according to the PMIs, while services are still relatively robust.
  • The EZ output price PMI in services fell further in July; inflation will follow, eventually. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor German GDP likely rose further in Q2, at the same pace as in Q1

  • We’re flying half-blind on Q2 GDP data in Germany, but we’re lifting our forecasts slightly, all the same. 
  • Construction investment was a drag on growth in Q2, but consumers’ spending likely rebounded. 
  • Our forecasts for Germany for the rest of 2024 see domestic demand now rebounding.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor The ECB is less sure about a September rate cut than markets

  • The September meeting is “wide open” according to Ms. Lagarde; markets see it differently. 
  • Easing inflation, softening wages and falling profit margins should take a September cut over the line… 
  • …But we are now less certain on a cut than we were before; all eyes on ECB “sources” in coming days. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Is the September rate cut safe from upside inflation risks? Probably

  • Inflation in the Eurozone was little moved in June; it will probably hold steady in July. 
  • Upside risks from services and energy now loom for EZ inflation but we think September’s rate cut is safe. 
  • Our forecasts point to a Q4 rebound in core inflation; will the ECB look through this and cut in December?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will the ECB signal a September rate cut this week? We think so

  • The ECB will likely open the door to further easing this week, teeing up a second rate cut, in September. 
  • Market expectations are converging on three cuts between now and March; the ECB is fine with this. 
  • One week ahead of the EZ Q2 GDP data, Nowcast models are subdued; we don’t buy them.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor The curious case of the vanishing EZ monetary policy transmission

  • EZ private-sector balance sheets are healthy; this dulls the monetary policy transmission mechanism. 
  • The private sector’s interest-rate-sensitivity has almost halved compared to before the GFC. 
  • Strong private balance sheets, fiscal activism and labour-hoarding will keep ECB policy rates elevated. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Right wing in France suffers defeat, as do French pollsters

  • Marine Le Pen’s RN fell flat on its face in the French parliamentary elections. The centre (left) holds on. 
  • The path to a working government in France is unclear, but OAT-Bund spreads have likely peaked. 
  • Germany’s trade surplus jumped in May, due mainly to a crash in imports; the July Sentix dropped. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Manufacturing still a drag in Q2; Q3 will be different, we hope

  • Friday’s industrial production data for Germany, France and Spain made for difficult reading.
  • The recovery in EZ manufacturing was still missing in Q2, but we look for better in H2.
  • The trend in retail sales remains flat, but they still likely picked up in Q2, and services spending rose.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Fall in Swiss inflation reaffirms our call for further SNB rate cuts

  • Swiss inflation edged lower, despite an uptick in services; a further, albeit marginal, fall is likely.
  • We look for two more SNB rate cuts, taking the policy rate to 0.75% by year-end; markets see fewer cuts.
  • The appointment of Martin Schlegel as the new SNB Chairman points to continuity in the rates outlook.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation will hit 2% by August, oil prices permitting

  • Headline inflation fell marginally in June, but the core was stable; no rate cut in July, but September is on. 
  • Rising global shipping costs present little upside threat to core goods inflation, for now. 
  • Services inflation will remain hot in the near term, but surveys point to widening downside risks.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will the Centre-Left vote unite to deny RN an absolute majority?

  • Markets are rallying on the prospect of no RN majority in France, but it’s bit too soon to cheer.
  • Eurozone inflation fell further in June, and risks are tilted towards a downside surprise.
  • German core inflation is now on a near-straight path towards 2% by the end of the year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Headline and core inflation in the Eurozone likely dipped in June

  • Inflation in the EZ likely fell in June, by 0.1pp to 2.5%; all set for a dovish message from Sintra this week.
  • Forecast upgrades in Spain and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q2.
  • German unemployment hit a new post-Covid high in June and likely will rise a bit further in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Money supply data point to Q3 resilience in the EZ PMIs

  • Money data point to continued upside for the PMI, which fell in June; will it rebound?
  • Credit figures are consistent with rising consumers’ spending and a rebound in investment soon.
  • The first June surveys for Italy and Spain suggest downside risk in the former but strength in the latter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

June 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

A MODEST CYCLICAL UPTURN HAS BEGUN, AND RATES ARE FALLING

  • …WILL POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY THROW A WRENCH IN THE WORKS?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor All set for a nail-biting French election first round this weekend

  • Polls point to a parliament split down the middle in France, but the second-round vote is a wildcard.
  • RN’s and NFP’s economic plans will anger bond markets and the EU; Mr. Macron will likely welcome this.
  • Survey data so far point to only a modest hit to sentiment in France from rising political uncertainty.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Don't jump the gun on Germany's poor survey data for June

  • German surveys turned south in June, but don’t write off the idea of a rebound in growth just yet.
  • Early hard data suggest GDP rose again in Q2, but a fall in construction will weigh on growth.
  • Leading indicators tentatively hint at a bottom in German investment, but the rebound will be slow.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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