EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, December 2024

In one line: Signs of underlying strength, despite boost from major orders.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, December 2024

In one line: Poor, but output likely rebounded in January.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor News of a crash in 2025 EZ wage growth is greatly exaggerated

• Bonds rallied yesterday on dovish headlines in the ECB’s wage tracker, but the details beg to differ. 
• The EU is ready to strike back at US tariffs, but we still see a low risk of a prolonged tariff spat. 
• ‘Habemus budget’ in France; industrial output fell in December, but it will rebound in January. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor A 10pp hike in US tariffs on EU imports priced in by EURUSD

• President Trump will soon impose tariffs on imports from the EU, but the details are still up in the air. 
• A 10pp increase in tariffs on EU goods is all but fully factored in by the drop in EURUSD since Q3. 
• EZ headline and core inflation beat the consensus in January; still no perfect landing at 2% in sight.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment & State CPIs, Germany, January 2025

In one line: Unemployment is still rising; soft state CPIs can’t be extrapolated to the HICP.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, January 2025

In one line: Still (very) friendly to ECB doves.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, December 2024

In one line: A poor finish to 2024, but probably not as bad as initially reported.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor Risks tilted slightly to the downside for EZ headline inflation today

• We now see EZ headline inflation unchanged at 2.4% in January, with a 0.1pp dip in the core, to 2.6%.
• Selling price expectations are rising in Germany and France, but core inflation will dip further in Q1.
• Is the consumption recovery in the Eurozone finally kicking in? We think so.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, EZ, Q4 2024; Unemployment, EZ, December 2024; ESI, EZ, January 2025

In one line: GDP growth slowed at end-2024 despite continued strength in the labour market. ESI points to better times ahead.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany & Italy, Q4 2024

In one line: Disappointing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q4-24

In one line: A drop, as expected, but the details point to robust domestic demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone