Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- Simple as well as hybrid Taylor Rule models suggest the ECB will hike by 75-to-100bp this year.
- Our fair value models see sticky Bund yields around 3%, but fiscal stimulus looms as an upside risk.
- Our forecasts assume that the 2s10s curve will flatten as the ECB tightens.
- Downside risks to EZ economic growth are widening, but we see broadly stable nominal growth.
- The starting position of public deficits makes fiscal balances vulnerable to a slowdown in the economy.
- A recession would widen the EZ budget deficit to 6% of GDP, triggering pro-cyclical tightening.
- Leading indicators on EZ investment took a hit in early Q2, but some are overstating the weakness.
- Upturns in German manufacturing and French construction capex remain upside risks for 2026.
- Surveys signal balanced inventories ahead of frontrunning the supply shock caused by the Iran war.
- EZ employment growth slowed further in Q1, leaving a thin margin of safety ahead of the energy shock.
- Industrial production in the Eurozone fell in Q1, but the output PMI promises much better data ahead.
- French fuel prices are rising faster than in the other major EZ countries, and the government can’t help.
- A fuel-duty cut will keep German headline inflation in check in May, but we still see a rise to 3% soon…
- …Services inflation in Germany was pulled lower by a plunge in airfares in April; this will reverse in May.
- Italian industry ended Q1 on a strong note; ZEW investor sentiment rebounded in May.
- Strong growth in IP investment, ex-Ireland, and capex in IT show the AI theme in the EZ macro data.
- The US is sprinting ahead on AI investment, while Europe is still walking, barely…
- …ECB data suggest US digital investment is up 80% since 2020, compared with no change in the EZ.
- German industrial output is still trailing leading indicators; revisions or a rebound are coming.
- Nowcast models for Q1 GDP in Germany look strong despite weakness in industry and retail sales data.
- Industrial output in Spain jumped in March, helping production in the EZ as a whole to a small gain.
- EZ retail sales fell slightly in March; or did they? We think sales in Germany will be revised higher.
- Factory orders in Germany jumped at the end of Q1, pointing to near-term strength in industrial output.
- The EZ construction PMI sank further in April, but the survey is likely overstating the weakness.
- We doubt that a rapprochement between the US and Iran will get the ECB off the hook next month.
- Wage growth in the EZ remains subdued, but risks are tilting to the upside for next year.
- French industry and Italian retail sales ended Q1 on a solid note; the fall in EZ April PMIs is confirmed.
- Swiss inflation jumped in April, and is set to average 1% over the medium term…
- …As second-round effects from higher energy prices will lift domestic inflation sustainably in H2.
- The SNB will remain on the sidelines, since the energy shock is also set to hit growth.
- Swiss inflation likely rose further at the start of Q2, lifted primarily by higher inflation in import prices.
- German manufacturing data for March should reveal gains in both production and new orders.
- Retail sales in the EZ fell in March, but we think the German headline will be revised higher next month.
- The ECB held fire but clearly hinted at a rate hike in June, unless a miracle happens in the Middle East.
- Inflation in the EZ hit 3.0% in April and is on track for 3.5% in May, with the 2026 average at 3.0%.
- EZ GDP growth slowed in Q1, on the eve of the energy shock, and growth will stay subdued in Q2.
- We now see a relatively small rise in Eurozone HICP inflation in April, by 0.1pp, to 2.7%.
- Energy inflation climbed further in the EZ, but the core fell due to a temporary slide in services inflation.
- EC selling price expectations rose across the board in April, and recession probability remained low.
- ECB consumer inflation expectations jumped in March, to 3%, on a three-year basis.
- The ECB’s bank lending survey points to tightening credit standards and weakening loan demand.
- Markets are still pricing the path for the ECB, based on inflation, inflation expectations and the oil price.
- There are downside risks to Q1 GDP growth, but Eurozone inflation rose further in April, to 3.0%.
- Core inflation likely fell a touch in April, due to weakness in services, but it will snap back in May.
- The ECB will stand pat this week, waiting for the June forecasts before its next move—a hike.
- A plunge in services PMIs warns that the growth in EZ consumers’ spending is now grinding to a halt.
- We cut our Q2 EZ GDP growth forecasts further, by 0.1pp to 0.1%, due to weakness in Germany.
- We still think the ECB will respond to the inflation shock by hiking, but markets are too hawkish.
- The EU allows national governments to subsidise energy costs for energy-intensive industries.
- But it has not yet given member states permission to forcefully respond to the looming energy shock.
- Efforts to reduce reliance on energy imports will help in the future, not so much during the current shock.
- Import growth likely peaked in late 2025; a slowdown will support GDP growth in 2026.
- The EZ nominal energy-import bill is now surging, but we think imports are falling in real terms.
- Low gas inventories point to upside risk to the volume of gas imports and prices.
- We still think the ECB will respond to higher inflation by tightening policy modestly over the summer.
- In the most extreme inflation scenario, the ECB hikes aggressively but also likely cuts next year.
- EZ construction output fell sharply in January and February, but likely rebounded a touch in March.
- Inflation in the EZ is on track to hit just over 3% by May, which will prompt the ECB to hike in June.
- Cooling oil prices mask a continued surge in refined- product prices, especially diesel.
- Services inflation will fall in April, holding down the core, but snap back quickly next month.
