Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

20 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Inflation still looks too hot for a Q4 rate cut, but what about Q1?

  • EZ inflation rose a touch in September, and the core was revised higher, matching our initial forecast.
  • Headline and core inflation will dip in October but then rebound, meaning no rate cut in December.
  • Markets are eyeing a rate cut in early 2026, but we think the ECB will opt to stay on hold at 2%.

16 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Spain's deficit to be smaller than even Germany's in 2026

  • Spain’s budget negotiations are non-existent; another rollover of the 2023 budget seems likely...
  • ...Still, its deficit will shrink out to 2027, and in 2025 be inside the EU’s 3% limit.
  • ECB doves point to downside inflation risks, but we still think the Q4 HICP data will move against them.

15 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Mr. Macron's motto: if at first you don't succeed, try, try again

  • Sébastien Lecornu plays his trump card, but will suspending pension reform be enough? 
  • Mr. Macron will come under rising pressure to call new elections if RN continues to rise in the polls. 
  • The cyclical improvement in France’s budget deficit looks set to continue in H2 as tax revenues rise.

14 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor How will Germany's fiscal splurge look, if all goes to plan?

  • Germany will raise its public debt burden by more than €1T over the next decade; what will this fund?
  • A sustained rise in defence spending to 3.5% ramps up the pressure on public finances from 2027.
  • The German government’s plan implies front-loaded investment from special funds starting next year.

13 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor We're lifting our Q3 GDP growth forecast for France

  • Construction and manufacturing likely drove another slight increase in French GDP in Q3.
  • Leading indicators for investment in France are subdued, but falling saving is helping consumption.
  • Our updated forecasts for the four majors still see EZ GDP rising by 0.1% in Q3, but with downside risk.

10 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor First Q3 GDP estimate likely to show Germany fell into recession

  • German auto output rebounded in September, but will this be included in the first Q3 GDP estimate? 
  • Construction investment rose in Q3, but net trade and consumption likely remained sluggish.
  • We now think the first Q3 GDP estimate in Germany will show that output fell by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter. 

8 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor German manufacturing orders fall in Q3, reversing Q2 strength

  • The reversal of tariff front-running is weighing on German export orders, but is the worst over?…
  • …Revisions to sales data suggest that industrial output was weaker in Q3 than we thought.
  • Early data indicate that EZ industrial production fell by 0.2% in August, partially reversing the rise in July.

7 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Another French PM bites the dust and soft Q3 data to start the week

  • France has lost another Prime Minister; how many more times will Mr. Macron play the same hand? 
  • Eurozone retail sales and Spanish industrial production growth likely slowed in Q3. 
  • The PMIs point to continued weakness in EZ construction, but investor sentiment is still upbeat.

6 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Spain continues to outperform; Italian GDP should rebound

  • Spanish GDP for Q2 was revised up, and surveys and hard data suggest we are too downbeat on Q3...
  • ...We are revising up our forecast, though we still look for GDP growth to slow a touch.
  • Italian GDP, meanwhile, is still likely to rise by 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, reversing Q2’s decline.

2 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Dovish decimals in the EZ HICP hide an overall hawkish report

  • Decimals proved dovish in the September HICP, but the main message from the report is hawkish. 
  • We still see EZ inflation above 2% in Q4, which would make it difficult for the ECB to cut in December. 
  • We’re lowering our inflation forecasts slightly, but our baseline remains higher than the ECB’s.

1 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor All set for a slight upside surprise in the EZ HICP today

  • A hawkish tilt in the German and Italian HICP data leaves our forecast for the EZ HICP at 2.3%. 
  • We still see the glass as half-full for Q3 consumption in Germany and France, despite soft monthly data. 
  • German jobless claims ticked higher in September but will fall in October; employment is still subdued. 

30 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Downside surprise in Spain lowers our EZ HICP forecast, slightly

  • Inflation in Spain rose by less than we expected, pulling down our EZ HICP forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.3%. 
  • The ESI rose in September and still signals low recession risk in the Eurozone. 
  • The IAB labour-market survey in Germany is on a tear, but other surveys are less optimistic.

29 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Will the window for further ECB easing in 2025 close this week?

  • We look for an upside surprise in EZ inflation this week, and a further blow to ECB easing hopes.
  • Consumer inflation expectations tilt hawkish, but market-based expectations look dovish.
  • Inflation expectations overall support the baseline in markets for the ECB to stay on hold, for now.

25 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Tumble in the IFO cancels out upbeat PMI in Germany

  • The IFO fell in September, offsetting temporary optimism after the jump in the PMI earlier. 
  • German surveys remain consistent with decent near-term growth in manufacturing and services. 
  • We still see weak growth in H2 2025, but the upturn in real M1 growth promises a much better 2026.

24 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor PMIs stay resilient in September, but the details look fragile

  • The EZ composite PMI rose further in September, but the details were weaker than the headline. 
  • The outlook for services is improving, but new orders in manufacturing warn of a Q4 slowdown in output. 
  • ECB doves will need a clearer sign of weakness in the PMIs to push their case for a Q4 insurance cut.

23 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor We're lifting our EURUSD forecast, but not enough for a rate cut

  • EURUSD has remained stronger than we anticipated; we are raising our forecasts.
  • We still look for near-term weakness in EURUSD, but we’re lifting our forecast for end-2026, to 1.17. 
  • If EURUSD rises to 1.20-to-1.25 in Q4 this year, ECB rate cuts would come swiftly back on to the agenda. 

22 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Week in preview: Will survey data shift the odds for ECB policy in Q4?

  • September’s first business survey from INSEE for France suggests the outlook is still weak.
  • We look for a small rise in the Eurozone’s flash PMIs next week, but they will still point to slow growth.
  • Other surveys, such as Germany’s IFO BCI and the EC consumer sentiment gauge, likely advanced too.

18 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Rising inflation will close the window on ECB doves in Q4

  • We think a rebound in inflation will now close the window on further monetary policy easing. 
  • Risks are asymmetric, however; the ECB will either cut or hold in the next three-to-six months. 
  • A near-term downside surprise in core inflation and further euro strength will prompt doves to pounce.

17 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor We still see upside risk to bund yields, but only a touch

  • Our fair-value model for bunds points to little near-term upside to yields, due to falling US rates. 
  • We estimate that fiscal stimulus in Germany will add around 30bp to bund yields between now and 2027. 
  • Overall, we see a slow rise in bund yields to 3% by 2027, implying limited near-term upside.

15 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Closer to an estimate for the Q1 2026 fall in German energy prices

  • Fiscal easing to reduce energy prices will lower German inflation by 0.4-to-0.5pp in January.
  • Eurozone employment growth eased in Q2, continuing the downward trend since 2022…
  • …Hiring is falling in manufacturing and agriculture, even as it holds up well in construction and services.
  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,