Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Datanotes Daily Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Services flattered by plunge in package holiday inflation.
In one line: Real M1 growth is holding up, for now.
In one line: Temporary relief from plunge in package holiday inflation.
THE EUROZONE IS SLIPPING BACK INTO STAGFLATION…
- …THE ECB WILL FOCUS ON INFLATION WITH TWO RATE HIKES THIS YEAR
- We now see a relatively small rise in Eurozone HICP inflation in April, by 0.1pp, to 2.7%.
- Energy inflation climbed further in the EZ, but the core fell due to a temporary slide in services inflation.
- EC selling price expectations rose across the board in April, and recession probability remained low.
- ECB consumer inflation expectations jumped in March, to 3%, on a three-year basis.
- The ECB’s bank lending survey points to tightening credit standards and weakening loan demand.
- Markets are still pricing the path for the ECB, based on inflation, inflation expectations and the oil price.
In one line: In the footsteps of the PMI and IFO.
In one line: Stagflation is back, with a vengeance.
In one line: Downside risks are widening.
- A plunge in services PMIs warns that the growth in EZ consumers’ spending is now grinding to a halt.
- We cut our Q2 EZ GDP growth forecasts further, by 0.1pp to 0.1%, due to weakness in Germany.
- We still think the ECB will respond to the inflation shock by hiking, but markets are too hawkish.
- The EU allows national governments to subsidise energy costs for energy-intensive industries.
- But it has not yet given member states permission to forcefully respond to the looming energy shock.
- Efforts to reduce reliance on energy imports will help in the future, not so much during the current shock.
- Import growth likely peaked in late 2025; a slowdown will support GDP growth in 2026.
- The EZ nominal energy-import bill is now surging, but we think imports are falling in real terms.
- Low gas inventories point to upside risk to the volume of gas imports and prices.
- We still think the ECB will respond to higher inflation by tightening policy modestly over the summer.
- In the most extreme inflation scenario, the ECB hikes aggressively but also likely cuts next year.
- EZ construction output fell sharply in January and February, but likely rebounded a touch in March.
In one line: Now signalling no change in net exports in goods in Q1.
In one line: Inflation is headed for 3%, and it will stay close to this level for a while.
- Inflation in the EZ is on track to hit just over 3% by May, which will prompt the ECB to hike in June.
- Cooling oil prices mask a continued surge in refined- product prices, especially diesel.
- Services inflation will fall in April, holding down the core, but snap back quickly next month.
In one line: On track for around 2.5% in May.
- Industrial production in the Eurozone likely fell in Q1, despite a strong finish to the quarter.
- Our nowcast model points to downside risk to EZ GDP in Q1, but we still see a 0.2% increase, just.
- Recession risks remained low at the end of Q1, but how will the surveys look in Q2?
- Germany is cutting fuel duty, which will likely shave 0.3pp off inflation in April and May.
- EZ house-price growth will slow this year, but which countries will drive the slowdown?…
- …Slowing house-price growth is a downside risk to consumers’ spending, but less so than pre-Covid.
- In Q1, the Winter Olympics and fiscal support soften the hit to Italian consumption from the energy shock.
- EU recovery funds will help support Italian GDP growth this year as domestic demand slows.
- We lower our forecast for EZ GDP growth in Q1 and Q2, by 0.1pp in each quarter, to 0.2%.
