In one line: Still-rising; lifted by a strong labour market and firming real wage growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Boosted by a rebound in the surpluses of goods and services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BTP-Bund spread has risen in line with French spreads; it will increase further but then fall to 100bp.
- France and Italy are in an EDP, no surprise here; any new French government has limited spending room.
- Political uncertainty will keep the EURUSD below 1.10 for now, but 1.18 by year-end is a decent bet.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Transport, hospitality and insurance are key drivers of sticky services inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in the Eurozone was uncomfortably hot in May, but 2% over the summer is still a good bet.
- Surveys signal downward risks for services inflation, but sports events are upside risks over the summer.
- We think the ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp in September, December and March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Nasty, especially in the core, but it’ll get better soon.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU is about to hit Chinese EV producers with tariffs, but this is not a full-blown trade war.
- Services inflation is rising, judging by German May CPI, but leading indicators point to weakness soon.
- German bond yields should fall between now and end-2024, but they will rebound next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Le Pen’s RN is on track to become the biggest party in the National Assembly, but without a majority.
- What is the ECB watching over the summer to determine its move in September? We list the key data.
- Inflation data will support a rate cut in September, but what about wages, margins and productivity?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Disappointin manufacturing in Italy, a still-rising Sentix and political drama in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Europe has swung to the right in the EP elections, but not dramatically so; Greens and Liberals lost big.
- Snap parliamentary elections in France could well hand Marine Le Pen the job of prime minister.
- Would a RN government ruin the party’s chance of a successful presidential bid in 2027? Perhaps.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Net exports did the heavy lifting, but the trend in consumption looks decent.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sign of life in manufacturing; is real net trade weakening?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent, and it will get better still.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Focus on the upturn in core orders.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB professes allegiance to data-dependency, but a September cut is now a bit more likely.
- We see two more 25bp cuts, in September and December, with risks tilted towards a third, in March.
- For the first time since hiking, the ECB seems confident that wage growth is, in fact, slowing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
