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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Chartbook Datanotes Weekly Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Still on track to hand the ECB a 25bp rate cut in September. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation still on course to back further easing in September

  • Headline and core inflation remain on track to support a 25bp ECB rate cut by September. 
  • The key difference between our and the ECB’s latest forecast is that we see inflation rebounding in Q4.
  • The outlook for the ECB is bi-modal; the Bank will stay at 2.0% in 2026 if it holds fire in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor Net trade in goods was a drag on Eurozone GDP growth in Q2

  • The EZ goods trade surplus rose in May, but only because imports fell further than exports.
  • Our Nowcast model points to upside risks to our forecast for Q2 growth, but it excludes net trade.
  • We will update our Q2 growth forecasts on Friday with the EZ construction data for May.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ manufacturing slowed in Q2; will tariffs pull the rug in Q3?

  • Industrial production in the Eurozone slowed in Q2 after a breakneck Q1; what awaits in Q3?
  • Leading indicators for manufacturing are mixed; the output PMI has been the best so far this year. 
  • A reversal of tariff front-running will weigh on output in H2, regardless of what tariffs the EU ends up with.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB hawks will struggle to hold the line over the summer

  • Isabel Schnabel draws another line in the sand for the ECB’s policy rate to stay at 2.0%…
  • …but we still think she and other hawks will lose out as dovish data tee up a 25bp cut in September.
  • Fair value models point to Bund yields at 2.5%, but fiscal policy and Dutch pension selling say otherwise.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, June 2025

In one line: At target, and risks tilted to the downside over the summer. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor German GDP growth likely ground to a halt in Q2, stung by net trade

  • Net exports warn of a downside surprise in German Q2 GDP; we look for zero growth. 
  • Manufacturing and services are upside risks to Q2 growth in Germany; construction was a drag. 
  • The upturn in real M1 growth points to accelerating German GDP growth from early 2026 onwards.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, May 2025

In one line: Still improving, and surveys point to a strong finish to Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France & Spain, May

In one line: Q2 was a quarter to forget in French manufacturing; Spain is looking better.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, May 2025

In one line: Poor, but falling turnover at odds with the surveys.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ industrial output weakens in May; all eyes on tariffs this week

  • Tariffs will likely dominate this week; will Mr. Trump stick or twist in the negotiations with the EU?
  • The near-term outlook for German manufacturing is better than what is implied by factory orders in May.
  • EZ industrial production likely fell in May, reversing the jump in late Q1, ahead of US tariffs.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor What are the chances of a "beautiful releveraging" in Europe?

  • A glass-half-full perspective indicates that the stars are aligned for a “beautiful releveraging” in the EZ. 
  • The EZ economy is completing a soft landing, an important prerequisite for a beautiful releveraging.  
  • Germany leading from the front is a key condition for a growth-supporting leverage cycle in the Eurozone.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor It's shaping up to be a fantastic summer for ECB policymakers

  • Falling oil prices and a strong euro are playing into the hands of ECB doves, for now. 
  • Services inflation is a key upside risk in the June HICP, but we still see core inflation at 2% by August. 
  • Fiscal details and a US-EU trade deal could swing the September meeting in favour of ECB hawks.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, June 2025

In one line: Stuck in the mud, but also underestimating growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Week in preview: decent June surveys, and a rug-pull in Bunds?

  • A firm commitment from Germany to spend 5% of GDP on defence would be a rug-pull for Bunds.
  • Rising investor sentiment and calmness on the trade front point to decent June survey data this week.
  • Early-Q2 data indicate upside risk to GDP growth in France, but we still look for just 0.1% q/q.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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