10 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss GDP fell in Q3 and the economy is now likely in recession

• Swiss GDP is likely to have fallen outright in Q3, as US trade tariffs were hiked and unemployment rose.
• The ECB wage tracker implies EZ wage growth eased in Q3 and will slow further out to mid-2026.
• The ECB is not about to end QT, like the Fed; we expect a continued steady run-off, for now.

EZ Datanote: Construction PMI, Eurozone, October 2025

In one line: Terrible, but also a terrible leading indicator.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Underwhelming, but we see further gains in early Q4.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, September 2025

In one line: Rock-solid, but momentum is now slowing.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, September 2025

In one line: A rebound, but what happened to output in September?

October 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

HOPES OF A Q4 RATE CUT DRIFTING OUT OF REACH

• …AS GROWTH AND INFLATION OVERSHOOT ECB EXPECTATIONS

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, October 2025

In one line: In line with our forecast; a coin toss between 2.1% and 2.2% on the EZ HICP.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Flat over Q3 as a whole. 

EZ Datanote: Q3 GDP, State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Germany avoids recession, just; inflation down fractionally in October.

3 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor October inflation kicks Q4 rate-cut hopes further into the long grass

• Robust core and headline inflation in October push December rate-cut hopes further into the long grass.
• Declines in food and core goods inflation will reverse this month; services will remain sticky until February.
• Energy inflation will fall a little further in November and December before plunging in January.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q3

In one line: Allez! 

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, November

In one line: Stung by volatility income expectations, again. 

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Expectations at a cyclical high.

27 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ PMI rises in October, in line with our view GDP growth is picking up

• The composite PMI for the Eurozone rose in October, as Germany’s index jumped...
• ...The PMI is consistent with better GDP growth in Q4 than Q3, which we think matched Q2’s 0.1% read.
• We still think higher growth and above-target inflation will keep the ECB on hold in December.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence & Flash PMIs, France, October 2025

In one line: PMIs remain terrible, but INSEE survey data look better.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, October 2025

In one line: Punchy headline, but details remain flaky. 

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Core is too strong for another rate cut in Q4.