EZ Datanote: Q3 GDP, State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Germany avoids recession, just; inflation down fractionally in October.

3 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor October inflation kicks Q4 rate-cut hopes further into the long grass

• Robust core and headline inflation in October push December rate-cut hopes further into the long grass.
• Declines in food and core goods inflation will reverse this month; services will remain sticky until February.
• Energy inflation will fall a little further in November and December before plunging in January.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q3

In one line: Allez! 

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, November

In one line: Stung by volatility income expectations, again. 

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Expectations at a cyclical high.

27 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ PMI rises in October, in line with our view GDP growth is picking up

• The composite PMI for the Eurozone rose in October, as Germany’s index jumped...
• ...The PMI is consistent with better GDP growth in Q4 than Q3, which we think matched Q2’s 0.1% read.
• We still think higher growth and above-target inflation will keep the ECB on hold in December.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence & Flash PMIs, France, October 2025

In one line: PMIs remain terrible, but INSEE survey data look better.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, October 2025

In one line: Punchy headline, but details remain flaky. 

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Core is too strong for another rate cut in Q4. 

20 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Inflation still looks too hot for a Q4 rate cut, but what about Q1?

• EZ inflation rose a touch in September, and the core was revised higher, matching our initial forecast.
• Headline and core inflation will dip in October but then rebound, meaning no rate cut in December.
• Markets are eyeing a rate cut in early 2026, but we think the ECB will opt to stay on hold at 2%.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, September 2025

In one line: Mostly base effects, the trend remains subdued.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Rising, but not the start of a sustained pick-up.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, August 2025

In one line: EZ manufacturing fell flat on its face in August.

13 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor We're lifting our Q3 GDP growth forecast for France

• Construction and manufacturing likely drove another slight increase in French GDP in Q3.
• Leading indicators for investment in France are subdued, but falling saving is helping consumption.
• Our updated forecasts for the four majors still see EZ GDP rising by 0.1% in Q3, but with downside risk.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Ugly, but stung by one-off distortions.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Not pretty. 

EZ Datanote: Construction PMI, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Not pretty, but the official numbers are better.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, August 2025

In one line: On track for a boost to Q3 GDP growth.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Nothing to see, the trend is flat.

6 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Spain continues to outperform; Italian GDP should rebound

• Spanish GDP for Q2 was revised up, and surveys and hard data suggest we are too downbeat on Q3...
• ...We are revising up our forecast, though we still look for GDP growth to slow a touch.
• Italian GDP, meanwhile, is still likely to rise by 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, reversing Q2’s decline.